Data: White House; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

President Trump's new budget lays bare the transformation of his presidency, pairing a historic surge in military spending with historic cuts to domestic programs.

Why it matters: The most powerful populist of this century is at risk of becoming what he ran against — a deficit-spending interventionist asking working-class Americans to shoulder the cost of war.

The timing couldn't be worse: Trump is bleeding support over the Iran war, hitting the lowest approval ratings of his second term as rising gas prices erode his economic credibility.

Even as Trump insists the conflict will end soon, his $1.5 trillion budget request for the Pentagon — plus an additional $200 billion ask for Iran costs — would lock in a wartime level of spending.

Zoom in: At a closed-door Easter lunch on Wednesday — accidentally live-streamed and then scrubbed from the White House YouTube page — Trump spelled out the trade-off in the bluntest of terms.

"We're fighting wars," Trump told guests. "We can't take care of daycare. Medicaid, Medicare, all these individual things. We have to take care of one thing: military protection. We have to guard the country."
He said the burden should be on the states, which may have to raise their taxes, and that it's "not possible" for the federal government to fund all of these programs.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Trump was referring to fraud in federal programs, and that "his record proves he will always protect and strengthen Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid."

The big picture: Trump's new budget — more a statement of the White House's goals than a legislative draft — would reorient the U.S. government around military power at the expense of virtually everything else.

Defense spending would rise 42% — a buildup the White House itself says exceeds the Reagan administration's and approaches the pace of spending just before World War II.
The massive Pentagon budget is framed as a response to an increasingly dangerous world that predates the Iran war, and envisions permanent U.S. military dominance as a governing principle.

Non-defense spending, which includes categories such as public health, scientific research, housing and education, would take a 10% cut, or $73 billion.

The steepest cuts would fall on the EPA, down 52%; the National Science Foundation, down 55%; and the Small Business Administration, down 67%.
Agencies spared from the proposed cuts include the Justice Department, which would get a 13% increase to "maximize its capacity to bring violent criminals to justice."

Between the lines: The administration is using a familiar argument to justify the cuts: fraud, waste and abuse.

In a Truth Social post Friday, Trump christened Vice President Vance his "Fraud Czar" — directing him to focus on Democrat-led states where, Trump claims, recovered fraud could balance the federal budget.
A year ago, Elon Musk's DOGE made the same argument, initially promising $2 trillion in savings but ultimately falling far short. Independent analysts found their claimed savings were vastly overstated, and the political backlash made Musk a pariah.

What they're saying: "Savings are achieved by reducing or eliminating woke, weaponized, and wasteful programs, and by returning state and local responsibilities to their respective governments," the White House said in a fact sheet.

White House officials point to examples such as grants for "environmental justice" projects and LGBTQ-focused programs as evidence of wasteful spending.
"Under President Trump's bold leadership, every tool in the executive fiscal toolbox has been utilized to achieve real savings," White House budget director Russ Vought said in a letter laying out the budget.

What to watch: The combination of foreign adventurism and domestic austerity cuts against the political instincts that brought Trump to power.

The coalition that delivered Trump his second term — working-class voters, older Americans, rural communities — relies disproportionately on the programs being compressed to fund the military.
Congressional Republicans face a brutal choice: Back a budget that guts programs their working-class constituents depend on, or break with a president who's made loyalty the price of survival.