Democrats' disaster scenario: Lawmakers despondent over "sickening" Virginia ruling

House Democrats fell into a state of anguish on Friday after the Virginia Supreme Court struck down a congressional map that would have netted them as many as four seats in the 2026 midterm elections.

Why it matters: The decision is a huge boost to Republicans' chances of keeping the House in November, with even some Democrats acknowledging they basically need to run the table in November to win now.

• "Damn, California and Virginia were supposed to be our bigger ones," one House Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity to avoid getting out ahead of their leadership, said in a phone interview after the ruling was released.
• "This means we gotta make sure we have a good wave to win the House ... we have to make sure we win a lot of those toss-ups," the lawmaker said. "Democrats now have to pitch a perfect game."
• Another House Democrat, also speaking on the condition of anonymity, offered a one-word reaction in a text message to Axios: "F*****ck!!"

A spokesperson for House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

• Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chair Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.) said in a statement, "This is a setback that sends a terrible message to Americans – the powerful and elite will do everything they can to silence you.

Driving the news: The Virginia Supreme Court overturned the results of an April referendum that temporarily suspended the state's independent redistricting commission.

• Democrats had been aiming to implement maps that would turn their party's current 6-5 edge in the state's U.S. House delegation into a 10-1 advantage as a way to counter GOP redistricting in Texas and elsewhere.
• The ruling gives Republicans a decisive edge in the mid-decade redistricting war.
• GOP state lawmakers are moving to gerrymander a slew of Southern states based on a ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court weakening the Voting Rights Act.

"Obviously it's not good news and, coupled with the Voting [Rights] Act decision, it shows that the manipulation that may impact November may be on the Republican side now," a third House Democrat told Axios.

• "It's going to be deflating for some, but really it's just a reminder that we are not invincible," said a fourth House Democrat. "We have felt so much momentum that it starts to feel like you can't lose and this should be a wake-up call to Democrats that we still have a lot of work ahead of us."
• "Democrats cannot take a midterm victory for granted," said a fifth, adding that "relying too much on the administration's unpopularity and not enough of their own positive agenda could put an otherwise sure victory at risk."
• Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Texas) called the ruling "sickening" and said it is "clearly a disappointment."

The intrigue: The ruling even has some lawmakers questioning the wisdom of Democrats spending $62.5 million to push the Virginia redistricting referendum — including nearly $40 million from Jeffries-aligned 501(c)4 House Majority Forward.

• "I feel like this is a colossal waste of resources that will further erode our politics," a sixth House Democrat told Axios, referring to the entire nationwide redistricting battle.
• "How many millions of dollars are we spending on this when the DNC is in debt and we have 40 frontline races to win?"

Yes, but: Many Democrats are still optimistic their party can win a big enough wave in November to overcome what is now a daunting structural disadvantage.

• "Trump will still have to deal with a Democratic majority in the House come November," Veasey said.
• Said Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.): "In spite of all the redistricting machinations, I think we will take back the House."

The bottom line: This may still be a lose-lose for Jeffries, with even lawmakers who are optimistic about retaking the House acknowledging he will likely have — at best — an agonizingly narrow majority.

• "Everybody will exert their pressure," the first House Democrat said.
• Just ask House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) how much fun that has been for him.