Drills, deals and doubts in the Pacific as Trump visits China

The first half of May is foreshadowing the future of Indo-Pacific security.

Why it matters: Long-term competition between the U.S., China and their friends — on AI, chips, cybersecurity, freedom of navigation, narrative influence, supply chains and more — is reshaping the world.

In just two weeks:

1. The U.S. and Japan, participating in Balikatan drills, fired a Tomahawk missile with a Typhon launcher and ship-sinking Type 88 missiles from the Philippines — a first and, from Beijing's view, a provocation.
2. Japan inked a defense cooperation agreement with Indonesia, hot on the heels of loosened arms-exporting restrictions.
3. Taiwan's legislature approved $25 billion in special funding to buy weapons. The move follows months of deadlock, and comes as many in Washington press the White House to accelerate sales and deliveries despite foreign pressure.
4. And President Trump headed to China to meet President Xi Jinping. They are expected to discuss everything from AI to nukes to agriculture to economic stability.

Friction point: Chinese officials have expressed dissatisfaction with all the regional military activity. Japan's slow-burn rearmament, the Chinese foreign affairs ministry said, is a "gray rhino charging towards peace and order."

Between the lines: The dynamic is in flux as the Trump administration shifts firepower away from the Indo-Pacific and toward the Western Hemisphere and Middle East, at least temporarily.

• Trump has also put distance between himself and long-standing allies.

What they're saying: The Washington-Beijing relationship is likely "the most important relationship on the globe," and has consequences for nuclear security, biotech and trade, said Christine Wormuth, the president of the Nuclear Threat Initiative and a former U.S. Army secretary.

• "Whether that relationship is going well or poorly matters a lot to Americans," she told Axios.
• "The issue I will be watching very carefully is what the two heads of state do or do not say about the issue of Taiwan."
• Even the subtlest changes in syntax will be obsessed over. While most analysts think Trump is unlikely to formally change the U.S. position on Taiwan, Xi may try to extract concessions behind closed doors.

What we're watching: American business executives will join Trump overseas. On the reported guest list are Nvidia's Jensen Huang, Boeing's Kelly Ortberg and GE Aerospace's Larry Culp.

The bottom line: "I think it's clear Trump is looking for some kind of economic detente with China," Grant Rumley, a former Pentagon official, told Axios.

• "The critical minerals ban has effectively shifted the U.S.-China competition from what looked like a boxing match to something closer to a marathon."

More from Axios:

China's nuke tests "are not small," NNSA boss says

Senator pitches Chinese AI questions in Hegseth letter

U.S. trails China and Russia on hypersonic weapons, task force finds