The post-2024 narrative that Latino voters shifted right is facing its first real stress test — including in districts Republicans thought were safely red.

Why it matters: The biggest immediate test is in Texas, where Republicans drew new maps assuming continued Latino gains. But GOP House seats are also at risk in California, New York, Colorado and Nevada.

New modeling from Democratic group Oath finds several GOP-drawn "safe" districts could become competitive if recent Latino voting trends hold.
New York's 2nd and California's 23rd and 40th congressional districts— all currently seen as Republican-leaning — could tighten significantly. Districts in Colorado and Nevada could also come into play.

The big picture: A slowing economy, the specter of immigration raids by masked federal agents, and rising prices are jeopardizing inroads the GOP has made with Texas Latinos, political science experts tell Axios.

Some of Republicans' 2024 gains with Latino voters may already be eroding, an Axios-Ipsos poll at the end of 2025 suggested.

By the numbers: In 2024, Republicans won Texas by Trump +14 and Florida by Trump +13 — fueled in part by double digit Latino rightward shifts.

In 2025, Latino voters swung by double digit percentage points toward Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia.
California's 23rd congressional district, a Republican-held seat with a 39% Latino share, could see an 11-14 point leftward swing under current projections — moving it from R+9 to a toss-up.

Zoom in: Texas' 15th, 23rd and 34th congressional districts — all heavily Latino — could flip if the shift holds.

The Texas 15th District is 78% Latino. It's held by Rep. Monica De La Cruz (R), who is facing a stiff challenge from Democratic Tejano star Bobby Pulido.

What they're saying: "What we've seen is that rolling back … it disrupts the narrative coming out of 2024 that Latino voters were swinging to Republicans," Brian Derrick, CEO and co-founder of Oath, tells Axios.

Derrick said Democrats are underinvesting in tougher, Republican-leaning seats, even as new data shows those districts could become competitive if Latino voter trends hold.

The other side: The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), remains bullish about building on Latino voting gains despite Trump's decline in popularity.

In a statement, the NRCC pointed to a recent National Journal report on how House Republicans are building a new coalition in key swing districts by recruiting battle-tested Hispanic candidates.
It's "a strategy Democrats are increasingly panicked about as Latino voters continue shifting right," Christian Martinez, NRCC spokesperson, said.