Iran war drives multi-year missile defense gap

The war in Iran has exacerbated a shortage of missile-defense weaponry that is likely to plague the U.S. and its partners — from Ukraine to Taiwan — for years to come.

Why it matters: The conflict is draining weapons stockpiles far faster than American factories can replace them, leaving the Pentagon and its allies scrambling to ramp up production and find cheaper alternatives.

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wrote to President Trump this week urgently requesting interceptors to knock down expected Russian missile barrages.
• But Iran has taken top priority, and a new analysis suggests it will take years to replace munitions expended in that war.

Breaking it down: A report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) finds that the U.S. used so many interceptors from missile defense systems like Patriot and THAAD in the Middle East that stockpiles won't be replenished until 2029.

• That's assuming the war does not resume, and even takes into consideration President Trump's massive $1.5 trillion defense budget proposal.
• The math is stark. The U.S. took delivery of just 172 Patriot interceptors in fiscal year 2026 and has used more than 1,000 in the Iran war, according to CSIS. Production targets in the coming years are much higher.
• The Pentagon insists it's maintained enough capability to defend the homeland and prosecute the Iran war successfully.
• But international partners who rely on U.S. weaponry are in a deeply uncomfortable position.

Zoom in: Zelensky's appeal to Trump followed massive strikes on Kyiv last Saturday and a Russian warning to all foreigners to leave the Ukrainian capital ahead of planned attacks on "decision-making centers" and drone production facilities.

• Russia used 54 cruise, 30 ballistic and three hypersonic missiles in the weekend attacks, Zelensky told Trump.
• "When it comes to defending against ballistic missiles, we rely almost exclusively on the United States," Zelensky wrote.
• U.S.-made Patriot systems have shown a remarkable ability to swat down Russian salvos, he added, but "there is hardly anything more painful to see than Patriot batteries with no missiles loaded."
• In addition to the more immediate threats, Ukrainian officials are already very concerned about their inability to defend against Russian attacks on energy infrastructure this upcoming winter.

Taiwan is also feeling the crunch. Officials are bracing for a potential conflict with China as soon as 2027, while contending with a backlog of U.S. arms shipments that's just south of $30 billion.

• That backlog includes Patriot interceptors, which Taiwanese officials confirmed to Axios last week were a high priority.
• "We understand there are many geopolitical conflicts around the world. Sometimes the U.S. has the need to replenish its own stockpile. Good communication is something that's very important," deputy foreign affairs minister Chen Ming-chi said.
• "It will be very difficult to resupply" if China invades, he added. "We understand what modern warfare looks like."

Yes, but: The Defense Department is well aware of the shortfalls — and has put immense pressure on contractors. This year alone, the Pentagon:

• Inked a deal with Lockheed Martin to boost yearly production of THAAD interceptors from 96 to 400 and Patriot PAC-3 MSE interceptors from 600 to 2,000.
• Struck other deals with Boeing to triple its PAC-3 seeker output. RTX agreed to push its production of the Standard Missile-6 beyond 500.
• Officials have also long recognized the need to shift, where possible, to cheaper and less scarce options. Some high-end interceptors can cost millions of dollars a pop.

The bottom line: Changes in procurement, production and usage will all evolve. What to shoot down when — and with what — can be a pricey, life-or-death decision.

• For now, there are simply not enough air defenses to go around.

Go deeper: U.S. dismissed Ukraine deal for anti-Iran drone tech last year