Scoop: Dems place $30 million bet on reshaping 2028 House maps

Democrats are taking the fight over future House maps down ballot, with the super PAC Forward Majority planning to spend $30 million on two dozen state legislative races this year.

Why it matters: They're betting that as few as eight statehouse races could help determine who controls redistricting for six U.S. House seats ahead of 2028.

• "We're in the Wild West now," said Leslie Martes, the chief executive officer of Forward Majority.
• "There are 7,000 legislative districts across the country. Not all of them are up this year, but you've got to make sure that you're playing in the right places with the resources that you have," she said.
• The group is eyeing seats such as the Arizona State Senate's 17th District, currently held by a Republican. "Kamala Harris won that district, even though she didn't win Arizona," Martes said.

Zoom in: In Texas this year, Republicans showed Democrats that redistricting didn't have to be a decennial affair, pushing through a mid-cycle redistricting that aims to net five new GOP seats.

• Democrats responded in kind in California, but a state Supreme Court decision blocked Virginia's aggressive redraw.
• The Supreme Court's Callais ruling weakened Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, giving both parties more room to pursue aggressive redistricting strategies.
• 10 states ended up with new maps for 2026. Other states flirted with redraws, but held back due to tight deadlines or skittish state legislatures.

Zoom out: Republicans plan to pad their numbers in states like Georgia and Mississippi ahead of 2028.

• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is preparing to respond by squeezing more Democratic-friendly seats from blue states.
• But both parties need the same thing to become creative cartographers: control of the state House, state Senate and governor's mansion.
• That is especially important ahead of the 2030 census, when all 50 states will redraw their lines.

The intrigue: Forward Majority predicts that eight races in five states — Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — could help determine control of legislative chambers representing roughly 42 million Americans.

• "We think it's one to two seats in Wisconsin, one to three in Pennsylvania, and at least one in Minnesota," Martes said. Arizona and Michigan use commissions to redraw congressional maps.
• Forward Majority is basing this prediction on an in-house modeling system called "Tipping Points" that analyzes demographic and political data at the precinct level to find its best opportunities.

The bottom line: "We win and lose some of these districts by 64 votes," Martes said.