Trump's pending Iran deal is bitter pill for Netanyahu

On Thursday evening, President Trump called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with news he did not want to hear: He expected to sign a deal with Iran within days.

• "This is the deal. It's a great deal, and it's time to end this war," Trump told Netanyahu, according to a senior U.S. official.

Why it matters: When Netanyahu went to war alongside Trump, this is not how he envisioned it ending.

Flashback: Netanyahu made clear from the beginning that he believed the war could spur regime change in Tehran.

Now, four months out from an election, Netanyahu's rivals are accusing him of making Israel a "vassal state" by simply accepting Trump's terms for peace.

• Some in Washington think Netanyahu might play a spoiler role even if the deal takes hold.
• But in the call with Trump, Netanyahu seemed to recognize he couldn't stop Trump from signing it, a U.S. official told Axios.
• For now, officials in both Tehran and Washington say a deal is close but not finalized.

Driving the news: As the exchanges with Iran ratcheted up earlier this week, Netanyahu planned to launch massive strikes against energy and infrastructure facilities, before Trump stopped him at the last moment.

• Since then, Netanyahu has found himself largely out of the loop, calling allies in Washington for intel about Trump's negotiations, a U.S. source with direct knowledge said.
• Trump's post on Thursday claiming a deal had been reached caught Netanyahu by surprise, according to a source with knowledge.

When Trump called an hour later, Netanyahu didn't push back hard or argue much, according to the U.S. official.

• The Israeli leader told Trump he trusts him to make sure the final agreement addresses their shared concerns around Iran's nuclear program.
• "Bibi probably understood that a deal was about to happen and that he could not to stop it," the U.S. official said.

Behind the scenes: Netanyahu and other Israeli officials are careful not to criticize Trump publicly, but in private they're highly skeptical about the pending deal.

• One concern is that after the deal is signed and the war ends, Iran could just drag on the negotiations without making real nuclear concessions.
• In the meantime, the theory goes, the Iranian government would be able to stabilize itself by selling oil, without the risk of war.
• Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Friday that Trump was pursuing a deal "based on his assessment of American interests," but Israel expected him to uphold shared "principles" around Iran's nuclear program, missiles and "terrorist proxies."

Friction point: Katz also claimed Israel retained "the ability to act independently to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon" and would prepare accordingly.

• Israeli officials are also concerned that because the ceasefire in the deal applies to Lebanon, the Trump administration will limit their freedom of operation against Hezbollah and demand to be consulted on every strike.
• "I understand the Israeli skepticism. Hezbollah killed a lot of innocent Israelis, especially Israeli civilians. So we don't expect any country to give up their right of self-defense. What we do expect is that if we're able to have everyone participate in the peace process, that everyone else will do the same," a senior U.S. official said Friday in a briefing with reporters.
• The official said the White House "feels confident" that ultimately the Israelis "will get on board."

On Friday morning, when Iranian state media claimed the deal would give Iran billions of dollars immediately, worried Israeli officials asked the White House for clarifications, a U.S. official said.

• U.S. officials reassured the Israelis that the Iranian reports mischaracterized the agreement.
• "We feel like when they see the full terms of the deal, and when they appreciate that fundamentally, that there has to be delivery from the Iranians before we deliver any of the benefits, that they're comfortable with that," the senior U.S. official said.

What to watch: Events in Lebanon are one factor that could destabilize a deal. Israeli forces still occupy large parts of southern Lebanon and continue to exchange cross-border strikes with Hezbollah.

• The senior U.S. official said that if Hezbollah fires rockets at Israel, and Iran keeps arming the militant group, that would be contrary to the deal.
• For Netanyahu, co-signing a deal to end the war without achieving his stated objectives would be a major strategic and political blow.