Breaking down the billions Iran could receive under Trump's deal

The still-secret terms of President Trump's Iran deal have triggered a furious debate over how much Tehran stands to gain financially — and how soon.

The big picture: The deal is expected to allow Iran to sell oil freely during a 60-day negotiating window, while opening the door to broader sanctions relief, access to frozen funds and a potential $300 billion rebuilding investment fund if a final nuclear agreement is reached.

Friction point: Critics argue that after shredding the 2015 nuclear deal in his first term, Trump is now following the same playbook — unfreezing cash in exchange for nuclear concessions — while potentially going a step further with the rebuilding fund.

• The White House says the discourse is being poisoned by Iranian "misinformation," and that its "pay for performance" structure is the best way to achieve the strongest-possible deal.
• But U.S. officials acknowledge that at least some benefits will flow to Iran upfront.

State of play: The memorandum of understanding (MOU) set to be formally signed on Friday is designed to launch 60 days of negotiations on a more detailed nuclear agreement.

• U.S. officials acknowledge it's uncertain whether a long-term nuclear deal will be reached, but argue the economic benefits for Iran depend on it.
• In the meantime, the dearth of details about what's actually in the MOU has left space for a swirl of claims that billions of dollars are already flowing to Tehran.

In response to questions for this story, a U.S. official told Axios: "This is a performance-based agreement. Iran can only access any benefits of the MOU if they abide by all of the points they agreed to – including no nuclear weapon, neutralizing its enriched material, and not interfering with the free flow of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz."

Here's a breakdown of the financial incentives at play.

What Iran gets right away

A U.S. official said the deal includes temporary sanctions waivers allowing Iran to sell oil as long as talks continue — a potentially massive revenue stream as the punishing U.S. naval blockade is lifted.

• Iranian state media have claimed Tehran will also get immediate access to frozen funds simply for signing. U.S. officials adamantly deny that.
• A senior U.S. official said Iran could receive "gestures" — sanctions relief or frozen fund access — in exchange for reciprocal gestures of compliance.
• Reports of side deals in which Gulf states such as the UAE and Qatar could unfreeze Iranian funds they hold were dismissed by a senior U.S. official as "preposterous."
• Still, the MOU leaves room for interpretation: The U.S. "undertakes to make [the frozen funds] fully available for use ... upon the implementation of this MOU," according to a source familiar with the text.

What Iran gets under a nuclear deal

If a final nuclear agreement is reached, the U.S. has committed under the MOU to lift all sanctions against Iran on an agreed-upon schedule, according to a source's description of the text.

• The White House says any deal must include retrieval of Iran's highly enriched uranium, a moratorium on future enrichment and an accompanying inspections regime.
• A senior administration official claimed the U.S. expects to know within two to three weeks whether Iran is serious — and that financial benefits would be limited if it isn't.

The $300 billion fund

One of the most politically explosive provisions is a potential rebuilding fund for Iran.

• The MOU says any final deal will include a "definitive and mutually agreed plan" for a fund supporting Iran's "reconstruction and economic development," according to a source familiar with the text.
• Sources familiar with the discussions said the "prosperity fund" idea came from Qatar and has been discussed with the U.S. and Iran for several weeks. The initiative envisions private sector investment from Gulf states and east Asian countries.
• Vice President Vance told Fox News the money would not come from U.S. taxpayers and would come into play only if Iran permanently ends its nuclear program, gives up its enriched uranium and allows nuclear inspections.

What to watch: Trump said once again on Tuesday that the text of the MOU will be released, though likely not until it is formally signed on Friday.