Axios-Ipsos poll: Health affordability is shaping the midterms

Majorities of Americans say they're more likely to vote for candidates in November who support ideas to lower their health costs, according to the latest Axios-Ipsos American Health Index.

Why it matters: Their support for ideas across the political spectrum — from renewing Affordable Care Act subsidies to expanding direct sales of prescription drugs — shows the power of voters' demands for relief.

The big picture: Health care policy was pivotal in the 2018 and 2022 midterms. The economy impacts every election.

• This year, they're converging into a demand for health care affordability as consumers seek relief anywhere to offset high prices for gas, groceries and other basic needs.

Driving the news: About half of Americans say measures aimed at drug and insurance affordability will probably influence who they'll vote for.

• More than 6 in 10 respondents say they support direct-to-consumer drug sales that could reduce some out-of-pocket costs.
• Roughly the same proportion back reinstating the enhanced ACA subsidies that Congress allowed to expire at the end of last year.

What we're watching: The cost concerns are particularly hitting price-sensitive individuals ages 30-49, parents of kids under 18 and those with household income below $50,000.

• The affordability crisis is reinforcing a belief that the government has a basic responsibility for ensuring access to health care, as opposed to individuals looking out for themselves.
• That's been accompanied by a small uptick in public confidence in the government's food safety standards, pandemic preparedness and childhood vaccine recommendations since we last polled on those questions in early March.

What they're saying: "Americans are concerned about the cost of health care, and they are looking to the government and their elected officials to alleviate the burden — and soon," said Mallory Newall, Ipsos vice president for U.S. public affairs.

• "Anytime you hear 'lowering costs,' it's enough for most Americans to support an initiative even if they're not familiar with the ins and outs of the issue," she said.

Zoom in: The poll shows that bipartisan majorities support expanding prescription drug discount platforms like TrumpRx and GoodRx, with 54% overall saying they'd be likelier to support a candidate who backs the policy.

• Party affiliation is more of a factor on the question of whether to revive enhanced ACA marketplace subsidies: 71% of Democrats and 49% of independents say they'd be likelier to vote for a candidate who supports bringing back the aid, while only 26% of Republicans would.
• That suggests Republicans could use the aid as a wedge issue this fall. "'Subsidies' and 'Obamacare' are partisan trigger words," Newall said.

By the numbers: Premiums and copays are enough of a concern that 26% of those polled say they'd be very or somewhat likely to shop for a new health plan this year because of rising costs.

• And 72% said they're very or somewhat concerned about the potential for their insurance costs rising this year.

Between the lines: While affordability issues are top of mind, hot-button social issues like abortion rights are also registering with voters.

• 52% said they support the Supreme Court decision that maintained access to abortion pills via telehealth, compared with 30% who oppose it.
• And almost 4 in 10 (38%) say they'd be less likely to support a candidate who opposes accessing the drugs through the mail or telehealth.
• A similar proportion said they'd be more likely to support a candidate who backs requiring Medicaid or SNAP recipients to show proof of work to receive benefits.

The poll also found that many Americans remain unaware of how GLP-1 obesity drugs work, even as prescriptions for the injectables and pills surge.

• More than a quarter (26%) said they or someone they know used a prescription drug for weight loss in the last three months, compared with 18% in March.
• But less than 10% said they were very familiar with taking the drugs at a lower than standard dose, also known as microdosing.
• And fewer than a third (32%) said they're aware of research showing GLP-1s have other potential health benefits, such as reducing the chance of developing Alzheimer's.

"There's still this big black box around GLP-1s, even though reported usage continues to climb," Newall said. "We have these medicines that are fundamentally changing habits, yet there's an even bigger share of people who are still in the dark about what these drugs can do."

Methodology: This Axios/Ipsos Poll was conducted June 12-15, 2026, by Ipsos' KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a nationally representative probability sample of 1,189 general population adults age 18 or older.

• The margin of sampling error is +/-2.9 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults.