Trump bears down on NATO

What looked like a typical round of President Trump insulting European leaders last weekend could turn into a wholesale reordering of the trans-Atlantic relationship.

Why it matters: Administration officials are pointing to Europe's reluctance to get involved in Iran to question why the U.S. should continue underwriting its defense.

• Against that backdrop, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is due in Washington tomorrow for what may be the alliance's most consequential encounter with Trump since his return to office.

Zoom in: In the course of a few days late last week, Trump and his top officials rattled some of America's closest allies.

• Trump said Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni "begged" him to take a picture with her at the G7. Meloni, once one of Trump's closest allies, said his claim was "completely fabricated," sparking a nasty social media war of words between them.
• He broke the news of U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer's resignation before he could do it himself — a move British journalist Robert Peston called "extreme, even by his standards."
• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth vowed in a speech to NATO defense ministers that the U.S. would conduct a six-month survey to determine which European countries aren't paying their fair share. The U.S. will cut its military presence in those places.

At the same time, Trump lavished praise on strongmen like China's Xi Jinping ("a very smart man"), India's Narendra Modi ("a great leader") and Russia's Vladimir Putin (who he said shouldn't have been kicked out of the G8) in an interview with Marc Caputo for "The Axios Show."

• The contrast was striking: While Trump mocked allied leaders, he praised their counterparts for their intelligence and leadership.

Between the lines: This isn't unusual rhetoric from Trump or his Cabinet members — they've been saying things like this since his first term.

• What is new is their pique over key European nations refusing to back the war in Iran, and in several cases not allowing the U.S. to use their military bases.

What they're saying: "She wouldn't even let us use Italy's landing strips or runways, a great logistical inconvenience, and this despite the fact the U.S. contributes hundreds of Billions of Dollars a year to protect Italy, and other 'so-called' NATO Allies," Trump posted on Truth Social.

• Hegseth and Secretary of State Marco Rubio made the same complaint about a host of European countries, including Spain, France and Britain (which partially relented).
• "NATO will be a two-way street," Hegseth said.
• When "you have countries like Spain denying us the use of these bases, well, then, why are you in NATO?" Rubio asked in May.
• Trump himself told The Telegraph in April that he was considering pulling out of NATO after it failed to help the U.S. in Iran. "I always knew [NATO was] a paper tiger, and Putin knows that too, by the way."

What's next: Rutte is scheduled to meet with Trump at the White House on Wednesday.

• The NATO secretary general has mastered the art of flattering the president, but he will have his work cut out for him.