Ukraine's drones take the war to Russia

Ukraine's sustained and sophisticated drone warfare has knocked out refineries, tilted the battlefield balance and brought the war home to some Russians for the first time in four years of fighting.

Why it matters: With Ukrainian confidence running high, and Russia struggling to provide fuel to its cities and supplies to its troops, President Volodymyr Zelensky says he's launching a "40-day influence operation" to force Moscow to sign a peace deal.

Driving the news: Hours after Zelensky's announcement on Thursday came one of the largest drone attacks of the war, targeting 12 regions of Russia as well as occupied Crimea.

• Russian authorities said at least 660 Ukrainian drones were intercepted. Explosions were reported at a chemical plant in the Tula region.
• That came a week after a massive explosion at Moscow's largest refinery, which filled the sky with black smoke. Residents reportedly took shelter in basements and emerged to "black rain" in parts of the city. The refinery is likely to remain offline until 2027, sources told Reuters.
• At least three more Russian refineries were hit this week, among other targets. Zelensky's announcement of a 40-day operation suggests there's much more to come.

What they're saying: "If Ukraine burns, your Moscow will burn too," Zelensky said as the refinery fire raged.

• "There are many difficulties [for Russia], all because Putin refuses to end his war and to hear our proposals for a meeting, genuine negotiations, and a dignified peace," he said earlier this week.
• Putin, for his part, insists Russia is ready to negotiate peace — on its terms. He acknowledged earlier this month that Ukraine's drone strikes were causing some damage, but said they would fail to divide society.
• "Strikes against civilian infrastructure — what are they aimed at? To destabilize society ... to create a sense of uncertainty about the actions of the Russian armed forces," Putin said this week.

The intrigue: President Trump, who met Zelensky at the G7 last week and spoke to Putin beforehand, remarked that Ukraine was now "doing pretty well" in the war.

• Two officials who attended the summit said Trump expressed frustration with Putin and even signaled he could walk back the "Anchorage understandings," under which the U.S. accepted Russia's demand that it would control Ukraine's Donbas region under any deal.
• "Trump was skeptical about everything regarding Putin, and talked about pressure on Russia, but other leaders do not believe he will actually do something about it," one official told Axios.

Between the lines: The U.S.-led diplomacy on Ukraine has stalled due to a combination of the war in Iran and frustrations after the failure of several previous rounds.

• It's unclear whether Zelensky's drone campaign can actually provide fresh momentum for peace talks.
• While it's piling pressure on Moscow, some analysts argue it will harden sentiments in Russia that Ukraine must be fought and defeated.

Zoom in: The impact of Ukraine's long-distance strikes appears to be sharpest in Russian-occupied Crimea, where authorities have halted all fuel sales and on Friday declared a state of emergency.

• Ukraine has struck power stations in Crimea and transport links connecting the peninsula to Russia.

What to watch: Ukraine is also using drones to disrupt supply lines to Russian troops at the front.

• Russian forces are continuing to try to push forward in eastern Ukraine, but progress has been slow and reported casualties high.