No World Cup jobs bump evident in June data

Axios
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The short version

  • By the numbers: Leisure and hospitality employment fell by 61,000 jobs in June. That's the category that includes restaurant and hotel employment and is most sensitive to tourism trends. The…
  • Of note: The month-to-month numbers are volatile, reflecting both sampling error and the vagaries of seasonal adjustment processes. But even over slightly longer time frames…
  • The intrigue: It's worth watching whether a World Cup bump shows up in the local economies in other ways, including retail sales and local tax receipts. Employment data for metro areas in June…
  • The bottom line: "Many had forecast additional hiring needed to support the draw of travelers from abroad and within the U.S. flocking to World Cup venues," Jim Baird of Plante Moran Financial…

The story

With the U.S. hosting the World Cup, there have been plenty of anecdotes about a booming tourism economy in host cities — Scotland fans drinking Boston bars out of beer, for example.

  • But no World Cup hiring bump is evident in the June employment data.

By the numbers: Leisure and hospitality employment fell by 61,000 jobs in June. That's the category that includes restaurant and hotel employment and is most sensitive to tourism trends.


  • The report also sharply revised down what had been first reported as a huge surge in May employment in the sector — to 40,000 jobs added from 70,000.

Of note: The month-to-month numbers are volatile, reflecting both sampling error and the vagaries of seasonal adjustment processes. But even over slightly longer time frames, there also is not much to see.

  • The leisure and hospitality sector has shed an average of 9,000 jobs in the last three months. It gained an average of 13,000 jobs monthly in the 12 months before that.

The intrigue: It's worth watching whether a World Cup bump shows up in the local economies in other ways, including retail sales and local tax receipts.

  • Employment data for metro areas in June will be released later in the month.

The bottom line: "Many had forecast additional hiring needed to support the draw of travelers from abroad and within the U.S. flocking to World Cup venues," Jim Baird of Plante Moran Financial Advisors wrote in a note.

  • "That either didn't materialize or was more than offset by losses elsewhere."
Read the full story at AxiosOriginal

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