Vance's hot summer positions to be Trump's heir — for now

This is JD Vance's summer: The vice president penned a bestselling book, helped broker a tentative peace deal with Iran, embarked on a media blitz and — most importantly for him — impressed the man in the Oval Office.

Why it matters: Vance's performances on TV, in polls and on the global chessboard underscore how — at least at this moment — the VP looks like President Trump's undisputed political heir if he runs in 2028.

• "JD is earning it, and Trump sees it," a senior Trump adviser said, adding that Secretary of State Marco Rubio — the other top Trump aide seen as a potential heir — "wasn't planning to run anyway, and he'd be even less likely to do so now."

Inside the room: For months, Trump has compared and almost pitted Vance and Rubio against one another, asking advisers whom they'd prefer at the top of a 2028 ticket. That parlor game is now on hold.

• "POTUS isn't asking, 'JD or Marco?' anymore," said one insider. "He's no longer asking, 'How's JD doing?' He's now saying, 'JD looks great, right?'"

Zoom in: The inflection point for Vance came in mid-June, when he and presidential envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff helped broker the memorandum of understanding with Iran, a step toward ending the war.

• The day before, June 16, Vance's new book, "Communion: Finding My Way Back to Faith," was published.
• Vance, already scheduled to go on a book tour, benefited from the breaking-news attention on his role in the peace talks.

By the numbers: Vance gave a total of 33 interviews in June, from conservative podcasts to a White House press briefing to gaggles with reporters to sit-downs with Bill Maher on HBO and the liberal daytime talk show "The View" on ABC, according to Vance's office.

• "The president doesn't watch 'The View.' But he saw the clips and loved what he saw," one of Trump's advisers said.

Meanwhile, Vance has hit the fundraising circuit for the Republican National Committee and has accounted for about $70 million in contributions, a crucial network he would tap if he runs for president.

• Vance's favorability numbers among all Americans are underwater, roughly equal to Trump's.
• But among Republicans, his net favorability rating is 62%, just shy of Trump's 65% and well above Rubio's 51%, according to polling released last month by Navigator Research, a Democrat-aligned firm.
• Vance also leads other potential GOP rivals in national and early state polls.

The intrigue: Though Trump is pleased with Vance at the moment, the president isn't too happy with a top veep ally — commentator Tucker Carlson, who's become increasingly critical of the president.

• "So far, Tucker isn't a problem. But it could be if Trump tells JD to distance himself from him," another adviser to Trump said.
• Vance's role in signing the Iran deal and his criticisms of right-wing Israeli politicians have upset pro-Israel conservatives who want Rubio to run against him — which is unlikely, in part because the men are friends and allies.
• Domestically, Vance's economic views about the role of government in business were criticized Saturday by the head of the conservative Club for Growth for not being sufficiently supportive of free markets.

Rubio has made it clear he has no desire to wage a primary campaign for president. One sign Rubio means it: He doesn't have the infrastructure for a possible campaign that Vance does, namely a stable of political consultants and insiders who are ready to work on his behalf.

• "Marco doesn't have pipe hitters. Vance does," said one Rubio ally. "JD's looking good. And everyone in the administration knows it."