Exclusive: Republicans juice spending to protect Senate "red wall"

Republicans are dramatically boosting campaign spending on Senate races in red states that, until recently, looked safely out of Democrats' reach in the November midterms.

Why it matters: The GOP — alarmed by recent polls and voting trends — is juicing its efforts in Ohio and Iowa to reinforce a Senate "red wall" they believe can block Democrats' path to a majority in the chamber.

The clearest evidence yet: One Nation, the conservative nonprofit aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), is reserving $28 million in TV advertising in Ohio and $11 million in Iowa, according to plans obtained by Axios.

• Republican candidates are locked in tough races in those states less than two years after President Trump won both by double digits.
• The TV ads will begin Wednesday and will run through the summer.

Behind the scenes: During a June 1 conference call with Thune and top GOP donors, One Nation executive director Alex Latcham touted roughly $100 million in planned spending on Democrat-held Senate seats in New Hampshire, Georgia and Michigan, according to a person familiar with the call.

• But Latcham also acknowledged the political headwinds facing Republicans in red states, and argued for doubling down on investments in GOP-held seats in Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, Maine and North Carolina.
• Not long ago, Ohio and Iowa looked like they didn't need much help from the GOP to defend.
• Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate.

Zoom in: Republicans are especially worried about Ohio Sen. Jon Husted's unexpectedly competitive race against former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who's outraised Husted by more than 2 to 1.

• In Iowa, Rep. Ashley Hinson is confronting voters dissatisfied with Trump's tariffs and a struggling agricultural economy. He faces state Rep. Josh Turek, who's emphasized the impact of Trump's policies on working Iowans.

Yes, but: Democrats have problems of their own in Maine, where Graham Platner is facing calls to withdraw amid accusations of sexual misconduct, which he's denied.

• Democrats need to net four seats to win an outright Senate majority, and Maine — which Trump lost by 7 points in 2024 — is seen as a must-win for the party.
• If Democrats don't defeat Maine Sen. Susan Collins, their path to the majority gets much harder. Democrats' road would get even more narrow if Republicans hold on to the Senate seats in Ohio and Iowa.
• One Nation is also reserving $6 million to spend in New Hampshire, where Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is retiring. Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is expected to face off against former Republican Sen. John Sununu.
• Thune's political operation is planning more than $400 million in spending — most of it through the Senate Leadership Fund super PAC, which is allied with One Nation.

What they're saying: "One Nation is proud to highlight the many conservative policies that have provided meaningful results for working families," Latcham said in a statement.

The other side: "This five-alarm fire by Republicans shows they know just how fragile their Senate majority is. Democrats have expanded the map with strong candidates and formidable campaigns," Tommy Garcia, a spokesperson for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told Axios.