AIPAC's next big 2026 target: A Democrat it already ousted from Congress last cycle

AIPAC hoped they had ended former Rep. Cori Bush's political career for good when they helped oust her two years ago. Now they're spending big to stop her attempted comeback.

Why it matters: The left has high hopes that Bush can prevail in her rematch against Rep. Wesley Bell this cycle by riding the wave of anti-establishment energy coursing through the Democratic primary electorate.

• "Since they bought this seat last cycle, AIPAC has become a kiss of death to the politicians they support," said Usamah Andrabi, a spokesperson for the left-wing group Justice Democrats, which is supporting Bush.
• Bush, he told Axios, is "the model for so many candidates this cycle of exactly the type of fighter against the corporate establishment that Democratic voters are demanding and electing."

Driving the news: United Democracy Project, AIPAC's super PAC, has spent $865,000 on television ads supporting Bell in Missouri's 1st Congressional District so far, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.

• That makes it the biggest ad spender in the race so far, followed by the center-left New Democrat Coalition's PAC's $500,000 and the Bell campaign's $475,000.
• Bush's campaign has spent just $30,000 on ads, per AdImpact. No outside groups have spent money in support of her yet.

Flashback: This all bears a striking resemblance to last cycle, when Bush was the incumbent and Bell, then a local prosecutor, was challenging her from the center.

• Bush, a Democratic Socialists of America member, emerged as one of Congress' most vocal critics of Israel after its war with Hamas began in 2023, attracting fierce opposition from AIPAC.
• The pro-Israel group spent more than $9 million to oust Bush, who was also dogged by an ethics scandal at the time and ended up losing to Bell by roughly five percentage points.

What they're saying: In Bush's telling, St. Louis is now fertile ground for a backlash to the cash avalanche AIPAC unleashed against her and former Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) in 2024.

• "People are really upset that so much money came into our district and was used to influence who became the representative this Congress," the ex-congresswoman said in an interview with Axios.
• She added: "A lot of people have said to me, 'Cori, I just didn't know,' or 'I didn't understand what was happening at the time, and now I know.' And they're upset."
• An AIPAC spokesperson did not respond to a request for comment.

What to watch: With a month until the Aug. 4 primary, the cavalry may still be coming for Bush as it has for DSA-aligned candidates in Colorado, New York and elsewhere this year.

• Justice Democrats, which spent $2 million supporting Bush last cycle, is "always proud to be in the fight with Cori Bush — the first-ever Justice Democrat," said Andrabi.
• The group, he told Axios, "will be doing everything we can to help her take this seat back from AIPAC and deliver it to the people of St. Louis where it belongs."