Vance pitch does little to quell House GOP angst over reconciliation 3.0

Vice President Vance's pitch to House Republicans on Wednesday did little to ease concerns over Speaker Mike Johnson's $95 billion reconciliation package, leaving GOP leaders with work to do ahead of a planned floor vote next week.

Why it matters: Johnson's conference members remain uneasy about the lack of spending offsets, and disagreements persist over the details of their signature election bill.

• Republicans hold a razor-thin majority, so a handful of defections could sink the measure.

"It's DOA," Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) told Axios.

• "Five-dollar footlongs are $12. People know that a lot of this is the debt. The deficits cause big debt, and overall, this debases the money. This is part of what's driving the affordability crisis."
• "A no-offset plan is dead on arrival, because, frankly, three of us would kill it," Davidson added.

Driving the news: Vance spent roughly an hour with House Republicans pitching the legislation and taking questions, according to multiple members in the room.

• Asked afterward why the package lacks offsets, Vance told reporters: "Ultimately, we decided this legislation, for a whole host of procedural reasons, was not the place in order to codify some of the things that we're doing in the anti-fraud task force."
• Johnson has been framing the lack of pay-fors as necessary to maximize the package's chances of success in the Senate.
• "I don't know if I buy all of that," Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) said when asked about Johnson's argument.

House Budget Chair Jodey Arrington (R-Texas) told Axios that "yes," he's confident the measure will get through his committee, where it's up for a vote Thursday.

• But Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who sits on the panel, told Axios he's "undecided."
• "I think the stupidest thing to do would be to try to jam it through committee when we've got bigger problems on the House floor," Roy told reporters. "And I think that might be the current state of affairs."
• Another Budget Committee member, Rep. Erin Houchin (R-Ind.), who has privately complained about being left out of last weekend's Camp David negotiations, also remains wary of the package.

Between the lines: The lack of offsets isn't the only headache for Johnson. His proposed SAVE America Act provisions aren't going far enough for some conservatives, either.

• For them, a proposed grant program to incentivize states to pass voter ID laws is insufficient.
• "That's just free money for Florida," Rep. Randy Fine (R-Fla.) said of the grant program. Blue states "will never take the grant money. I'm not a big fan of carrots. I like sticks."

Yes, but: Senate Republicans have warned that including the full SAVE Act would likely fail to meet the parliamentary standard for reconciliation bills in the Senate known as the "Byrd bath."

• That isn't swaying some House conservatives. "I don't worship at the altar of Senate procedure," Fine said.

The other side: "It's better than nothing," Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) told Axios of the grant program.

• "Our budgetary concerns do not overwhelm our focus on getting SAVE America. ... For the first time, I feel highly confident that we are going to get it done," Rep. Clay Higgins (R-La.) told Axios.

In the Senate, Republican leaders remain broadly skeptical of a third supplemental spending package, and rank-and-file senators are already signaling they want changes to the House bill.

• Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), who will replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham as chair of the Budget Committee, is warning that the Senate may insist on offsetting at least some of the spending.
• "I've got other members on the committee that also insist on offsets," he told Politico.
• "Offsets would be a desired goal," Sen. Jerry Moran (R-Kan.) said.

Others are pushing for a more ambitious package.

• "I think it should be bigger," Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.) said.

Still, some Republicans say they want to give the House room to finish its work before drawing battle lines.

• "We're going to try and get her done," Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.) told Axios. "We thought they would have offsets in there. We're a little surprised they weren't."