Mike Johnson's government funding gambit

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) wants to hold a conspicuously early vote on a short-term funding bill next week — more than two months before the government runs out of money.

Why it matters: Johnson may be setting himself up to win in September by losing in July.

• A failed vote on a short-term spending stopgap could potentially strengthen the GOP leader's hand in another difficult challenge: securing $67 billion for the Pentagon to replenish its munitions through the reconciliation process, according to conservative lawmakers.

An early defeat on a continuing resolution would give Johnson a pretext to shoehorn a spending stopgap bill into a September reconciliation package.

• Call it Reconciliation 3.0 Plus.
• "The Dems know, 'OK, if we don't do the CR, we'll do it in a [reconciliation] bill," Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) told Axios.

What we're watching: Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) are on starkly different wavelengths when it comes to a third reconciliation package.

• "You've got to think long and hard about this. It's a much easier proposition in the House," Thune said Thursday.
• But pairing a continuing resolution with reconciliation could have two advantages. First, it makes it harder for House Republicans to oppose the package.
• It would also present the Senate with a take-it-or-leave-it choice: accept the House reconciliation bill or share the blame for a government shutdown.

Zoom out: Republicans are increasingly worried about spending the final month of the midterm campaign defending a government shutdown.

• House Republicans have little confidence Democrats will provide the votes needed to pass a funding extension.
• The planned July vote is designed to put both Democrats and the Senate on notice that Republicans don't believe they can count on bipartisan support for a continuing resolution.

The other side: GOP senators are deeply skeptical about pivoting to a CR in July.

• They want to give the regular appropriations process time to work. And they are aware that public talk of a stopgap measure risks undercutting bipartisan negotiations over full-year spending bills.

Driving the news: Johnson said Thursday he plans to bring a clean continuing resolution to the House floor next week before lawmakers leave for the August recess. (The Senate is scheduled to remain in session for two additional weeks.)

• But there's little reason to believe it will pass.
• House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) didn't rule out Democratic support for a clean CR but warned Republicans against taking a "my-way-or-the-highway approach."
• Meanwhile, some conservatives are threatening to oppose any must-pass spending bill that doesn't include the SAVE America Act. Johnson told reporters he "hasn't decided" whether to attach the measure.

Between the lines: Conservatives have been pushing leaders to use reconciliation to fund parts of the government, and a failed CR vote could give Johnson political cover with frustrated appropriators.

• But the strategy has its detractors.
• "I've heard it talked about, and I think it's a bad idea," Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.), an Appropriations Committee member, told Axios last month about using reconciliation for appropriations.

Yes, but: That entire strategy rests on Republicans actually passing a third reconciliation bill — a prospect about which many lawmakers remain skeptical.

The bottom line: Even if the continuing resolution fails, forcing the vote allows Johnson to argue that Republicans exhausted the normal appropriations process before turning to reconciliation.