Low layoff rates defy AI jobs domination fears

The last time this few Americans were filing for unemployment benefits, Creedence Clearwater Revival topped the music charts, while "Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid" was the star of the box office.

Driving the news: Only 187,000 people filed new claims for unemployment insurance benefits last week, pointing to an astoundingly low level of firings across the economy. It was the lowest since September 1969.

• The labor force was much smaller then, too, so relative to the number of workers, this is easily the lowest number of jobless claims on record.

Why it matters: There are plenty of gloomy warnings about the labor market, including that the proliferation of AI will lead to widespread layoffs. We appear to be far from that reality.

What they're saying: "While seasonal factors may be impacting the headline number at the margins, the extremely low level of claims highlights a low layoff rate and the strength underlying the labor market," Oxford Economics senior U.S. economist Matthew Martin wrote in a note.

The intrigue: This is simply one side of the equation. Fewer firings say very little about what is happening on the hiring side.

• Younger workers are feeling the pinch of the low-hire, low-fire dynamic that has defined the economy.
• Entry-level job postings have been trending downward since 2022 and, as of May, were down 7.5% from a year earlier, Indeed said in a new report Thursday morning. Senior-level job postings are up nearly 15% over the same period.

The bottom line: Weekly claims continue to defy predictions of rising layoffs. If it persists, economists may have to rethink how much damage AI adoption — and other economic factors — will have on eliminating jobs.