Canadians' travel pullback costs U.S. tourism billions

Canadian travel to the U.S. fell 25% last year, according to a new Canadian government report, which says early 2026 data show the decline has persisted.

Why it matters: The report provides some of the clearest measures yet of the economic cost to the U.S. tourism industry after trade tensions, tariffs and President Trump's repeated "51st state" comments led many Canadians to vacation elsewhere.

• "Following the change in the U.S. administration in early 2025 and the implementation of America First policies, Canadian travel sentiment shifted abruptly," the report says.
• Statistics Canada says Canadians' return trips from the U.S. declined year over year for 11 consecutive months in 2025 — the longest sustained decline outside the pandemic since digital records began in 1972.

The big picture: Canada has traditionally been the largest source of international visitors to the U.S.

Zoom in: Canadians spent C$3.3 billion ($2.3 billion) less on trips to the U.S. in 2025, with lower leisure travel accounting for most of the decline, according to Statistics Canada.

• Travel spending on visits to the U.S. fell to C$18.8 billion, down from C$22.1 billion in 2024, per the report.
• Spending on overseas leisure trips, meanwhile, rose C$3.6 billion to C$22.8 billion, accounting for just under half of Canadians' total spending on trips abroad, the report says.
• Representatives for the White House did not immediately respond to Axios' request for comment.

Between the lines: Canadians largely redirected their travel rather than staying home, replacing many U.S. trips with domestic vacations or overseas travel, the report says.

• The 7.1 million fewer trips to the U.S. in 2025 were offset by 5 million more domestic trips and 1.3 million additional overseas trips.

What we're watching: Canada is only one piece of the U.S. tourism market. Upcoming U.S. visitor data should help show whether increased travel from elsewhere — including for the World Cup — offset some of the decline in Canadian travel to the U.S.

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