The pre-Trump GOP is coming for Vance ahead of 2028

The Wall Street Journal opinion page tried to stop Donald Trump a decade ago and again in 2024. Now, the standard-bearer of traditional conservatism is making an early case against his presumed heir.

Why it matters: Vice President JD Vance has the inside track for Trump's endorsement. But there's a not-insignificant GOP faction that never embraced Trump's overhaul of the party — and is already arguing against handing the reins to Vance.

Driving the news: In a series of recent columns, Journal opinion writers have ripped Vance for being too self-promoting, too eager to court Tucker Carlson, and too thin-skinned.

• The columns were written by Kimberley Strassel and Allysia Finley — both members of the Journal's editorial board. One of the pieces was an unsigned editorial.

The main arguments:

1. Vance is putting his ambitions ahead of governing.

• As congressional Republicans have tried to pass an agenda that might avoid an election wipeout in November, Strassel wrote, "Mr. Vance is promoting a book." She was referring to Vance's recent media tour to promote his just-published bestseller, "Communion."
• "What experienced legislators wish the newbie Mr. Vance would understand is that his résumé polishing is doing no one any favors — not the party, not the president, not even himself."

2. His personality rankles.

• Strassel wrote a follow-up piece after Vance's fans came after her for her earlier column. "One answer [for the aggressive response] is simply that Mr. Vance is a sensitive bunny," she wrote. "But the other answer is that Mr. Vance knows his 'national conservative' ambitions for the GOP aren't landing."

3. He's naive.

• Finley and an unsigned WSJ editorial zeroed in on Vance's defense of the memorandum of understanding with Iran that quickly unraveled, as well as his claims that the Iranian regime had turned over a new leaf.
• "We promise that wasn't Mr. Obama or John Kerry speaking," the editorial board wrote dismissively.

4. He cozies up to Carlson.

• "Mr. Vance has spent the Trump presidency trying to curry favor with Mr. Carlson as part of laying the ground for a 2028 presidential run," Finley wrote, calling the VP's diplomatic outreach to Carlson "bizarre given how the pundit has made common cause with the far left" on Israel.

Between the lines: Vance's critics fall into three interlocking circles.

1. Pro-Israel conservatives.
2. Traditional Republicans who, broadly speaking, want to turn the clock back to the pre-Trump revolution in their party.
3. The Murdoch empire. Rupert Murdoch clashed repeatedly with Trump — during the president's first campaign, and again when he staged a comeback early in the 2024 cycle — before bending to him both times. The owner of the Journal and Fox News also lobbied Trump not to pick Vance for VP.

The three groups converge on the paper's opinion page.

The other side: Vance's army of supporters fired back at Strassel over her assertion that he's been AWOL from Congress. According to Vance's office, he's been there over two dozen times since he became vice president. (His office declined to comment beyond that.)

• More broadly, the allies say the Journal is fighting the last war — clinging to a vision of conservatism the Republican Party has left behind.
• If anything, his supporters say, the paper's criticism helps Vance politically — showing he's in tune with the party's grassroots and not heeding the old guard.

"No one in Vance's orbit is concerned or surprised about being attacked by the literal beating heart of the pre-Trump GOP establishment," a top Vance ally told Axios. "When the Wall Street Journal ed board hits him, it only sends the exact signal to our base that we want. ... These guys are doing our work for us."

• A Trump administration official who also served in the first term called the editorial board "a relic of a bygone era. Their globalist screeds haven't carried weight among GOP voters in the real world for years and only appeal to a small group of establishment never-Trumpers in D.C."

Context: The GOP has changed drastically over the past decade. The parts of the party pining for a return to pre-Trump policies may be deluding themselves.

• Vance mirrors Trump on trade and immigration — the two issues at the center of Trump's overhaul of the party, and on which the Journal is most at odds with the administration.
• Elite opinion matters less than it once did, as Trump's rise showed.

Zoom out: The backdrop for all of this is that many Vance-skeptical Republicans want Secretary of State Marco Rubio (who's been adamant he won't run) instead.

• Axios reported last month that Ken Griffin — one of the most prolific donors in GOP politics — said he'd back Rubio over Vance in a primary.
• "Regime Change," the bestseller by Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan, revealed that when Trump asked Murdoch for his opinion on Vance and Rubio (with the two sitting awkwardly nearby), the News Corp. boss said Vance "has the potential to be great" but that Rubio is "brilliant."
• Strassel was explicit in making the contrast: "Mr. Vance might follow the example of a current prospective rival. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is pursuing the [former VP Mike] Pence model: Put your head down, do the work, let the results speak," she wrote in April.

The bottom line: Trump vanquished the Bush-era GOP, but he's a unique breed. Assuming Vance runs, he'll have to show he can do the same.