Democrats lack a leader right now — and might not get one until 2028

You're probably about 550 days from Democrats having a true leader who can show and shape the party's direction.

Why it matters: Until Super Tuesday — that's March 7, 2028 — or well beyond, Democrats will be leaderless, rudderless and likely split between rising socialist energy and more traditional, establishment liberalism.

• DNC Chair Ken Martin will likely get ousted and leave behind a hot financial mess and cashless dumpster fire.
• Hakeem Jeffries has a legit shot at rising to speaker, but will lack a big enough majority as well as the instincts and ambition to lead beyond the House.
• Chuck Schumer seems tired. If he doesn't win the majority, he'll get challenged for the top job. Then, he'll be preoccupied with AOC running for his Senate seat and ending his career. Even if she goes for the White House instead, his future at home and as party leader is fragile.
• Barack Obama is the only Dem with true national sway — and he's made plain he wants to work things mostly behind the scenes.

This leaves Bernie Sanders as the most powerful kingmaker for '28 given his network and sustained popularity. Advantage: AOC.

The bright side: Dems will be juiced to win back power in '28, knowing a better Senate map awaits and confident voters will want to move beyond Trump's drama.

• They'll see the path to full control of D.C. thanks to one wild stat: 17 of 22 presidents going back to Teddy Roosevelt took office with full control of government.
• More recent Republicans — President Trump excluded — are the ones who buck that trend: Presidents Nixon, Ford, Reagan and both Bushes.

Between the lines: Insane political volatility is the rule, not the exception, of modern elections. This means more regulatory and policy uncertainty, including the rising possibility of socialism among Democrats and sustained Trumpism among Republicans.

What to watch: The 2028 Senate map is the best in a decade for Democrats. Republicans hold 19 of 34 Senate seats that'll be up, including Wisconsin, North Carolina and Ohio.

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