Poll: Talarico has slim lead over Paxton in Texas Senate race

Three consecutive polls have now shown Democrat James Talarico narrowly ahead of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in that state's crucial race for the U.S. Senate. The latest, released Tuesday morning, has Talarico up 47%-45%.

Why it matters: That's within the survey's margin of error, and the Republican establishment isn't panicking — not yet, anyway.

• But there are some troubling signs for the GOP nominee among white and Latino voters.

State of play: The private theory among top Republican officials has long been that Paxton, while scandal-plagued, doesn't have the kind of problems that money shouldn't be able to solve. The plan is to drive up Talarico's negatives with Texas-sized ad buys and wait for GOP voters to come home.

• But the cavalry of outside money still hasn't arrived for Paxton, as Talarico's team continues pump out ads calling Paxton "the most corrupt politician in America."
• And while Paxton raised $9 million last quarter, many big-dollar donors for Sen. John Cornyn — whom Paxton beat in the GOP primary — aren't opening their wallets. Talarico, meanwhile, pulled in $30 million as he tries to become the first Democrat in more than three decades to win a statewide election in Texas.

Before the latest survey of 1,200 likely voters by the Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, a Fox News poll had Talarico up 51-48. A Texas Public Opinion Research survey found Talarico up 45-40.

• "The only poll that matters is November 3," said Nick Maddux, a Paxton adviser.
• "Talarico's campaign will end up exactly where every Democrat before him has ended up in Texas — a pipe dream."

Zoom in: Demographically, though, Paxton appears to be suffering a one-two blow, according to the Texas Southern survey.

• He's underperforming badly with white voters (60% of the modeled midterm electorate) and Latino voters (21% of the electorate).
• Paxton is winning white voters by just 14 points, the survey found, low for a Texas Republican. President Trump won them by 33 in Texas two years ago, according to exit polls.
• Trump also carried Hispanic voters by 10 points. Talarico is winning them by 19, Texas Southern found.

Zoom out: The GOP political establishment's worst nightmare came true in Texas' Republican primary, when Cornyn lost a civil war to Paxton.

• The GOP spent more than $60 million on Cornyn's campaign, with much of that money focused on negative ads targeting Paxton.

The intrigue: Trump endorsed Paxton at the last minute, when it was clear he'd prevail.

• But Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) and his political team made it clear that it would be up to Trump's team to drag Paxton across the finish line in the November election.
• "Republicans may keep Texas, but you broke it, you buy it. MAGA Inc. just became Texas Inc.," a Thune ally told Axios.

Reality check: Paxton has won statewide elections three times. His character issues — from various corruption charges to a messy divorce — are well known to Texas voters. They've continued to put him in office anyway.

Editor's note: The poll surveyed 1,200 Texans who are likely to cast a ballot in the November 2026 general election in Texas with a margin of error of +/- 2.83 points). The survey (in English and Spanish) was fielded between July 27 and July 30, 2026, by contacting registered voters via SMS text messages through which the respondents were directed to an online survey platform.