Left turn in Michigan: Tuesday's primary takeaways

Progressives scored their biggest win of the year Tuesday in Michigan's Senate primary, narrowly defeating the Democratic establishment in the clearest sign yet of how a populist surge is remaking the party.

Why it matters: Left-wing outsider Abdul El-Sayed underperformed predictions, but his victory over moderate Rep. Haley Stevens was still a rebuke to party leaders in D.C. and Michigan, and to big donors who flooded Stevens' campaign with cash.

• El-Sayed was outspent 9 to 1 by Stevens and her allies — including AIPAC's political arm. He ran on an unapologetically progressive platform to abolish ICE, support Medicare for All and staunchly oppose aid to Israel.
• In a bitter campaign, El-Sayed was painted as a sexist, an antisemite and critic of former First Lady Michelle Obama — much of it on the airwaves. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer cut a slick video backing Stevens.
• It wasn't enough.

Key takeaways from Michigan:

1. Progressives lay the groundwork for 2028.

• Progressives and democratic socialists have been eager to show that one of their own can carry a battleground state that will be crucial in the next presidential election. They'll get a chance to prove that in November, now that El-Sayed has been nominated in Michigan.
• If El-Sayed succeeds in November, it'll be seen as a boon for the prospects of a left-wing 2028 presidential contender such as New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
• On the other hand, if El-Sayed were to stumble, AOC — who's mulling a run for Senate or the White House in 2028 — likely would share some of the backlash. She's been among El-Sayed's top surrogates.

2. Bernie hands Chuck an "L."

• With the progressive movement he'd fostered for so long building unprecedented momentum, progressive icon and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders went on a mission to elect progressives up and down the ticket this year — often opposing Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer's favorites, including Stevens.
• Sanders backed El-Sayed on the first day of his campaign. Stevens' loss marks the second time this year that Schumer failed to get his preferred candidate over the finish line in a Senate primary. The last time the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee whiffed in a major primary before this year was in 2010.

3. Money isn't everything.

• El-Sayed, a former a former Wayne County health director, compared himself to David going up against Goliath.
• The Biblical allusion made many moderate Democrats roll their eyes, but the spending disparity in the race was truly enormous: Stevens and her allies spent $65 million on ads compared to $7.5 million by El-Sayed and his supporters, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
• Stevens' loss is a large face-plant for AIPAC, the pro-Israel lobby whose super PAC poured more than $30 million into the race against El-Sayed. The results could lead more Democrats to distance themselves from AIPAC money at a time when Israel's image has nosedived among the party's voters.

4. Republicans like the result, too.

• El-Sayed has excited the left, but many Republicans are happy with his win as well.
• Recent polls have suggested that former Rep. Mike Rogers, the GOP's Senate nominee, would fare better against El-Sayed than Stevens. Trump already has branded El-Sayed a "communist," a theme voters can expect to hear from the GOP throughout the fall. (El-Sayed has said he's a capitalist, not a socialist.)
• El-Sayed, meanwhile, faces the challenge of reuniting a deeply divided Democratic Party, wooing independent voters and trying to attract some Republicans.
• Many centrist Democrats are skeptical he can pull it off — and point to Tuesday's closer-than-expected results as evidence he could lack enough big-tent appeal in November.

5. The left also shows its muscle in down-ballot races.

• For progressives, it wasn't just El-Sayed: Will Lawrence won a battleground House nomination, and Donavan McKinney was threatening to oust Rep. Shri Thanedar.
• Yousef Rabhi declared victory over incumbent Christopher Taylor in the Democratic primary for mayor in solidly blue Ann Arbor.
• And Abbas Alawieh of Dearborn — cofounder of Uncommitted, a group formed to protest U.S. support of Israel — was ahead of state Rep. Erin Byrnes in the race for the Democratic nomination of a state Senate seat.