The House Democratic money machine is coming for GOP Rep. Max Miller

Democrats have gone from treating Rep. Max Miller (R-Ohio) as a best-case-scenario target to a genuinely vulnerable incumbent whose downfall is worth a real investment.

Why it matters: Democratic groups tell Axios they plan to put their money where their mouth is and spend to win the seat, which Trump carried by double digits in 2024.

• Phil Gardner, a spokesperson for the centrist Blue Dog Action Fund, said his group spent nearly $200,000 to support Miller's Democratic opponent, Brian Poindexter, in the primary "to make sure Democrats would be on their strongest footing if Max Miller started crashing out."
• "We're prepared to invest again in the general election and finish the job," he told Axios.
• The Saturday deadline for Miller to drop off the general election ballot came and went despite pressure from Republicans for him to withdraw over allegations of domestic abuse, which he denies.

Driving the news: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee made clear Tuesday morning that it views the district as a top target by adding Poindexter to its "Red to Blue" program.

• Red to Blue provides Democratic candidates in "highly competitive" Republican-controlled or open House seats with "organizational and fundraising support," according to the DCCC's website.
• In other words: It is House Democratic leadership's list of candidates they see as the best positioned to win in November — and thus the best use of their time and money.
• DCCC spokesperson Riya Vashi noted that the House Democratic campaign arm already had the district on its less selective "districts in play" list and that "the unstoppable momentum building behind Brian Poindexter only confirms that OH-07 is one of the best pick-up opportunities on the map."

Between the lines: Most of the other candidates on the list are running in seats that former Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024 or which went for Trump by single digits.

• Trump carried Ohio's 7th district by more than 11 percentage points.
• But a poll of 866 likely voters in the district first shared with Axios found Poindexter leading Miller by eight percentage points, 43% to 35%.
• The survey, commissioned by the Poindexter-supporting Iron Workers International union and Democratic group The Next 50, was conducted Aug. 7–10 and has a 3.7% margin of sampling error.

What they're saying: "I assume people will spend for Brian," Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio) told Axios. "Max is losing."

• CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for the Democratic-leadership aligned House Majority PAC, told Axios, "Brian Poindexter is going to flip OH-07, and HMP will do whatever it takes to make that happen."
• "It's a priority for us," said Ravi Mangla, a spokesperson for the progressive Working Families Party, which endorsed Poindexter in the primary.
• The Next 50 and Iron Workers said in a joint statement: "Brian is building the coalition to win this race, and we're behind him all the way."

The other side: "That's all tough talk," Miller told Axios in a text message, adding, "Why do you think they wanted me out so bad…?"

• Poindexter "isn't going to win the general here," Miller added. "You'll see and I'll be back."
• The National Republican Congressional Committee referred Axios to a Washington Post story published last week about Republican voters in the district being unaware of the abuse allegations against Miller.
• "Democrat Brian Poindexter backs a radical far-left agenda that's completely out of touch with northeast Ohio, and D.C. Democrats' support won't save him this fall," said NRCC spokesperson Zach Bannon.