Why House Dems may go easy on one of GOP's most vulnerable members

Rep. Mike Lawler's (R-N.Y.) fight to hold on to a key battleground seat is getting a behind-the-scenes assist — for now, at least — from an unlikely group: House Democrats.

Why it matters: Kamala Harris carried Lawler's district in 2024, but some Democrats are privately wary of spending the small fortune it would take to oust one of the GOP's most bipartisan — and electorally savvy — members.

• "If you're going to have a Republican, it's the kind of Republican we want in the Congress," a Democratic source told Axios of Lawler, also noting that the New York City area is the nation's most expensive media market.
• A senior House Democrat told Axios: "I don't think Lawler is beatable."

State of play: Republicans are outspending Democrats more than 40 to 1 on current and future ad reservations in New York's 17th District, according to ad tracking firm AdImpact.

• The House Republican leadership–aligned super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund has a whopping $6.7 million reserved in the district.
• That is on top of $2.8 million from the Lawler campaign and $2.1 million from outside GOP group Americans for Open Government.
• Democratic leadership–aligned nonprofit House Majority Forward is the only group with ad reservations in the district, at just $270,000 reserved.

Yes, but: Democrats insist their lack of ad reservations is simply a result of the New York media market being so costly that there is no value in reserving TV time early there compared with states like Iowa.

• "NY-17 is one of the best flip opportunities on the map, and Mike Lawler is down in polling — HMP is going to do whatever it takes to flip this seat," CJ Warnke, a spokesperson for the HMF's political arm, House Majority PAC, told Axios.
• Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Riya Vashi pointed to an alleged GOP shell PAC spending $1.5 million in a failed attempt to stop Cait Conley from becoming the Democratic nominee as evidence they are "clearly scared."
• Vashi noted that the DCCC put Conley, a U.S. Army veteran, on its coveted "Red to Blue" list and said the group will "continue our efforts to fire Mike Lawler and elect Cait every day leading up to November."

Zoom out: Lawler's Hudson Valley district has long been viewed as one of Democrats' best pickup opportunities — and one of the races most likely to decide control of the House.

• Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to reclaim the majority.
• Harris carried Lawler's district by half a percentage point in 2024, making it the most Democratic-leaning seat in which a House Republican is running for reelection.

Between the lines: One estimate shared with Axios found that the money needed to compete seriously in NY-17 could instead fund television advertising across 11 toss-up House districts.

• The only other truly vulnerable GOP incumbent in the NYC media market besides Lawler is Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-N.J.), and Democrats wouldn't get much bang for their buck spending there.
• Said the Democratic source: "If you can pick up five people for the cost of one person, wouldn't you just go after the five people?"

The intrigue: A former House Republican familiar with the dynamic between Lawler and Democratic leadership expressed skepticism that Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) will ultimately lay off Lawler through Election Day.

• The tensions between Lawler and Jeffries spilled into the open last year when Lawler waited outside the Democratic leader's press conference and the two engaged in a shouting match over the ongoing government shutdown.
• The DCCC and House Majority PAC will "absolutely" spend in the district because "Schumer and Jeffries hate him," the former lawmaker predicted, adding that Lawler "will still win."
• A second senior House Democrat, asked if Jeffries hates Lawler, told Axios: "Correct."

The bottom line: Lawler is one of the Republicans with the most Democratic fans, but he's still a Republican standing between them and the House majority.