Texas and Iowa Senate races tighten heading into midterms

Two key Senate races in typically Republican states, Texas and Iowa, are a toss-up heading into the midterms, according to the latest projections from The Cook Political Report.

Why it matters: The fight for control of the U.S. Senate is extremely tight, and Democrats need to flip at least four seats to become the majority. Doing that will require wins in states that aren't typical battlegrounds.

The latest: On Thursday, Cook moved both Texas and Iowa's Senate races from lean Republican to toss-up.

• The governor's races in both states also shifted: Texas moved from solid Republican to likely Republican, and Iowa from toss-up to lean Democrat.

Zoom in: In Texas, the race for the open Senate seat between state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican, and state Rep. James Talarico, a Democrat, has proven competitive.

• Texas hasn't elected a Democrat statewide in more than three decades.
• Recent polls have shown Talarico with a slight edge over scandal-plagued Paxton. Talarico is also a prolific fundraiser, and establishment Republicans have held off on throwing financial support behind Paxton.
• In the governor's race, three-term Republican Gov. Greg Abbott has taken criticism for his prior support for data centers as backlash against them grows in rural areas. Democratic candidate Gina Hinojosa has branded the state the "wild west of data centers."

Yes, but: National Democrats aren't yet investing in Texas' Senate race. Texas is served by 20 media markets, making the state by far the most expensive among the states in play.

In Iowa, a Democrat hasn't won a presidential or Senate race since then-President Obama in 2012.

• But the Hawkeye State has been battered by tariffs and soaring fertilizer and diesel costs.
• The race to replace Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) is between U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) and state Rep. Josh Turek, a Democrat.
• "Even though their nominee in Rep. Ashley Hinson is one of their best recruits — and is running more competitively than retiring Sen. Joni Ernst would have been — the political environment is uniquely challenging for the GOP here," Jessica Taylor, an editor for The Cook Political Report, wrote Thursday.
• Turek and Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) each released campaign emails about the new predictions, with Schumer claiming the shift means Democrats "are poised to win the Senate majority."

In the Iowa governor's race between Democratic state auditor Rob Sand and Republican businessman and farmer Zach Lahn, Sand is leading by 5 points according to polling by Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media.

• According to a poll analysis from Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, Independent voters are swinging toward Sand and making the difference in the results.
• "The gubernatorial contest belongs in a category that reflects an edge for Democrats at the top of the ticket," Taylor wrote for Cook Political Report.

The big picture: It's a terrible political environment for Republicans right now, and Democrats are looking to build momentum.

Stef Kight contributed to this story.