Scoop: Mike Rogers-AIPAC rupture roils Michigan Senate race

Allies of Mike Rogers, Michigan's GOP nominee for the U.S. Senate, have asked AIPAC not to advertise on his behalf, triggering a rupture with the powerful but polarizing pro-Israel group.

• Rogers spoke with AIPAC chair Michael Tuchin in Los Angeles last week. The next day, AIPAC shelved an already-cut video ad targeting Rogers' Democratic rival, outspoken Israel critic Abdul El-Sayed.

Why it matters: The extraordinary tension underscores how far AIPAC's political standing has fallen amid voters' anger over the war in Gaza. Even Rogers — a staunchly pro-Israel Republican — fears the group's public support could be a liability in the Nov. 3 election.

Driving the news: The move by Rogers' team angered AIPAC officials, who had spent more than $30 million to try to defeat El-Sayed in the Democratic primary and prepared to spend millions more to help elect Rogers, according to people familiar with the conversations.

Zoom out: El-Sayed made AIPAC a centerpiece of his successful primary campaign, using the group's spending against him to portray Democratic opponent Haley Stevens as beholden to the pro-Israel lobby.

• El-Sayed has called Israel a "rogue state," accused it of genocide and apartheid, and has declined to say whether Israel has a right to exist as a Jewish state.
• That made defeating him a priority for AIPAC, which rarely mounts major spending campaigns in general elections.

Behind the scenes: Rogers' team warned AIPAC before the Aug. 4 Democratic primary that it believed El-Sayed would beat Stevens, though AIPAC held out hope Stevens would prevail. The two sides agreed to keep talking.

• After El-Sayed narrowly won, AIPAC told Rogers' allies it wanted to continue its advertising offensive into the Nov. 3 general election.
• But Rogers' team believed AIPAC's primary ads had backfired by giving El-Sayed a powerful foil — one he was eager to use again.
• "AIPAC, if you're listening, come back and burn it again," El-Sayed said before his primary victory.

Rogers' allies urged AIPAC to get involved without putting the group's name front and center, people familiar with the talks told Axios.

• One option: Directing AIPAC donors to a pro-Rogers super PAC instead of the group running its own ads, or a joint fundraising group the Rogers campaign has established with the national GOP.
• Rogers' team also proposed hiring AIPAC's political strategists to help guide its effort.
• But AIPAC officials weren't satisfied: The group wanted a visible role in defeating El-Sayed and argued that because Rogers is strongly pro-Israel, El-Sayed would tie him to the pro-Israel lobbying group regardless.

State of play: Direct talks between Rogers' team and AIPAC have now gone cold, prompting a broader GOP effort to broker peace. Jewish Republican donors with ties to both sides are acting as intermediaries, people familiar with the discussions said.

• Some national Republicans now worry that AIPAC — whose super PAC ended July with nearly $60 million in the bank — will sit out the general election entirely.
• Others say AIPAC has too much at stake to not jump into the Michigan race, and they expect the group to eventually reconcile with Rogers' team.

The big picture: AIPAC has suffered a string of high-profile defeats in Democratic primaries. The group's latest setback was Tuesday, when a candidate it opposed won a special election for a Northern California House seat.

• Rogers is running in a swing state with one of the country's largest Arab American populations, giving him reason to tread carefully on Israel and Gaza.
• A recent Fox News poll found 55% of Michigan voters oppose continued U.S. aid to Israel.

Reality check: El-Sayed's attacks on AIPAC may have less potency in the November general election than they did in the Democratic primary, where voters were more likely to be critical of Israel.

• Operatives from both parties believe the Michigan race — like others in manufacturing-heavy states — is more likely to turn on voters' perceptions of the economy than their views on Israel.

What they're saying: "I welcome any and all support from the pro-Israel community and I'm proud to have their involvement," Rogers told Axios.

• AIPAC representatives didn't respond to requests for comment.