Alaska seeks oil revival while grappling with a warming future

EXIT GLACIER, Alaska — America's 49th state is a study in contrasts: Rapidly melting glaciers like this one attract tourists, while the oil industry underpinning its economy is getting a fresh boost from Washington after decades of decline.

Why it matters: Few places put the causes and consequences of global warming in such close proximity, making Alaska a vivid window into the world's reliance on fossil fuels as climate impacts mount.

Driving the news: "Alaska is a powerhouse," Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last week in Anchorage at the state oil and gas trade group's annual conference, according to Alaska News Source.

• "I think you could have an incredible several years, several decades coming with just some common sense policies to set Alaskans free."

State of play: Alaska has emerged as perhaps the Trump administration's biggest geographic focus for expanding U.S. oil and gas development, with the government pushing new leasing, easier permitting, Arctic drilling and a massive natural gas pipeline.

• A major new North Slope oil field started producing in May, and another is expected to begin producing in 2029.
• Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) told Axios this moment is a "second wind" for the state's oil industry.

The big picture: No offense to Texas, but everything is actually bigger in Alaska.

• It's more than double the size of Texas and has more coastline than all other states combined.
• It ranks near the top for both proven oil and gas reserves in the nation, and it has the largest icefield wholly contained in the U.S., the Harding Icefield, which feeds Exit Glacier.

Reality check: Alaska's heyday as a top oil powerhouse is likely behind it. Its oil production has been declining since the late 1980s, and projects underway aren't expected to restore anything close to that.

Friction point: Some of Washington's efforts are facing hurdles.

• The Interior Department's June lease sale in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, a vast wilderness home to polar bears, caribou and hundreds of bird species, generated little industry interest. A separate sale for new drilling in Cook Inlet near Anchorage received zero bids.
• An Interior Department spokesperson described the wildlife refuge lease as "a success for this frontier area," and pointed to a record-breaking March lease for Alaska's North Slope.

Zoom in: The roughly $50 billion effort to pipe natural gas 800 miles from the North Slope to the Kenai Peninsula for export to Asian markets is struggling to move forward.

• Wright called it his "number one" energy infrastructure priority earlier this year.
• But last week, he said: "I'm disappointed that I'm sitting here right now and we're not talking about shovels in the ground," Alaska News reported.
• Jason Bordoff, founding director of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy, who recently visited Alaska's northernmost regions, called the economics of the project "terrible."

Inside the room: Or more aptly: next to the glacier. Signs along the hiking trail at Exit Glacier tell visitors how much this glacier has retreated dating back to the late 1880s; the most recent sign is from 2010.

• Its retreat has accelerated in recent decades due to human-caused warming, according to Albin Wells, who researches the topic at the University of Zurich.
• The seven glaciers near the ski town of Girdwood are all likely to vanish or be vastly reduced within 75 years, Wells said.
• One of our guides near Girdwood, describing how dramatically the glaciers had changed during his lifetime, said he avoids the term "climate change" because of its polarizing politics.

Between the lines: The changes go far beyond glaciers: Thawing permafrost and disappearing sea ice are destabilizing land and accelerating erosion along parts of Alaska's coast.

Follow the money: One of the nation's fastest-warming states remains deeply reliant on oil and gas.

• Decades of oil wealth helped build the Alaska Permanent Fund, which now provides more unrestricted state revenue than current oil and gas revenues do — as well as an annual dividend for residents.

What we're watching: With energy security demanding attention amid the ongoing Iran war, climate change may be on the back burner, Bordoff said, "but it is going to come back in a nonlinear way because of the impacts we're seeing."