A costly summer sendoff approaches

Persistent pump pain and pricey burgers mean this summer's last hurrah comes with a cost crunch.

The big picture: Gasoline prices are almost certain to remain north of $4 per gallon over Labor Day weekend — a heavy travel stretch and the time when midterm election season intensifies.

Driving the news: Labor Day gas prices are slated to be the highest on record, surpassing the previous one set in 2012, per market tracking firm GasBuddy and AAA.

• That's coming off a record-setting August, where the monthly national average of $4.07 trounced 2022's record, per AAA data.
• While regular gas prices are more likely to impact Labor Day travel than diesel, the fuel that powers America's trucking fleet hit a new high Friday, driving up costs across a wide swath of industries.

Friction point: Meanwhile, the war in Iran is showing signs of intensifying and has scrambled markets.

• The Wall Street Journal reported this week that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is quietly extending troop deployments, citing people familiar, while the president maintains the U.S. can strike "any time we want."

By the numbers: The number of Americans who say gas prices are going up has nearly doubled in the past six months, per the Ipsos Consumer Tracker.

• In March, just 38% of people thought prices were higher. Now, that's up to 79%.
• Ipsos' Matt Carmichael writes that in "a question we've asked about 20 times in recent years, we've never seen such a sudden and dramatic shift."

For travelers flying to top Labor Day destinations, airfare is nearly 20% higher than last year, per AAA.

• Still, TSA predicts over 17 million travelers at airports across the country between the Thursday and Wednesday that straddle Labor Day.
• About 2.87 million travelers are expected to take off the Friday before Labor Day. Last year, the TSA recorded its highest volume ever for the Friday before Labor Day with some 2.97 million passengers.

Yes, but: Once travelers touch down — or even among those opting for a staycation and grilling at home — beef prices for those Labor Day burgers remain stubbornly elevated.

• A pound of ground beef cost $6.89 on average in July, up 10% from the year prior.

The bottom line: This Labor Day might hurt pocketbooks more than usual — and the market is feeling it too, as higher energy prices show up across the economy.

• And as affordability looms over the midterms, more than a month of averages over $4 per gallon and persistently high beef costs could give the GOP holiday heartburn.

Go deeper: Gas prices are rising again — and so is GOP grief in the midterms