"Cautious Optimism": US Pending Home Sales Rise For 3rd Straight Month In April

Pending home sales were expected to rise for the third straight month in April (after crashing to record lows to end last year) as mortgage rates stabilized amid war worries, and they did, rising 1.4% MoM (better than the 1.0% expected) with March's gains revised higher too.

Source: Bloomberg

This left pending home sales up 3.35% YoY - the best annual gain since Nov 2024 - lifting the index off record lows...

Source: Bloomberg

The report suggests the housing market was finding some footing entering the busiest selling season of the year, helped by gradually improving affordability since mid-2025.

“Buyers are coming out with cautious optimism despite increasing economic uncertainty and a slight rise in mortgage rates,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.

That said, lower-income prospective buyers remain challenged by high mortgage rates and elevated asking prices.

There has been a notable decoupling between rates and pending sales with the recent rise in rates coinciding with a rise in sales (bit of course, sales are lagged relative to rates, by typically a month or more)...

Contract signings increased last month in three of four US regions.

Pending sales declined in the South, the biggest housing market in the country, after solid increases in the prior two months.

As a reminder, because houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold, the pending home sales data tend to be a leading indicator of closings that are captured in the monthly previously owned home sales reports.