"Late Spring Buyer Rush": US Pending Home Sales Just Surged By The Most In Almost 2 Years

Pending home sales in the US were expected to rise for the fourth straight month in May and they did with a huge beat (+3.8% MoM vs +0.9% MoM exp - above the highest analysts estimate), which was slightly offset by a downward revision for April (from +1.4% to +0.3%).

That is the best monthly improvement in pending home sales since Sept 2024 and that lifted sales by just over 2% YoY.

“A late spring buyer rush - even with mortgage rates not budging - is an indication of pent-up housing demand and consumers’ acceptance of above-6% mortgage rates as the new normal,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a release.

The Pending Home Sales Index is now at its highest since Nov 2025, after bouncing back from record lows in January...

There has been a notable decoupling between rates and pending sales with the recent rise in rates coinciding with a rise in sales (but of course, sales are lagged relative to rates, by typically a month or more)...

Pending sales climbed in all US regions, with the Northeast leading with an 8.7% increase over the month. Yun noted the Northeast is picking up following a period of low inventory and rising home prices.

As a reminder, because houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold, the pending home sales data tend to be a leading indicator of closings that are captured in the monthly previously owned home sales reports.