"Optimism Has Picked Up": Retail Operators See Consumer Relief After Gas Prices Tumble

As soon as the national average for 87-octane gasoline at the pump dipped below the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon level early last week, we observed multiple institutional desks begin to forecast that the light at the end of the tunnel was beginning to materialize for consumers, especially working-class households that have been financially battered by surging fuel prices over the past several months.

UBS analyst Mark Paski told clients about "early signs of a turn in U.S. consumer discretionary."

Then, Piper Sandler Chief Global Economist Nancy Lazar told clients, "If inflation has indeed peaked, that will boost real incomes (nominal incomes have been solid), a positive for both real consumer spending and housing, but don't expect robust growth in either."

Gathering more ground-level intelligence about possible consumer sentiment shifts, or at least the early chapters of it, Wolfe Research polled 270 industry contacts on the consumer outlook this summer.

"Optimism has picked-up a bit relative to April/May, but there are persistent concerns about higher gas prices, inflation reaccelerating & price competition in the 2H," Wolfe Research analyst Greg Badishkanian wrote.

Badishkanian continued, "Our checks occurred last week and at that point optimism hadn't reached pre-war levels yet. They were still concerned that if the conflict dragged on, it would hurt their respective industries."

He noted, "When we asked some of the operators within more discretionary segments about the impact of a potential lasting peace deal, they all thought it would boost sales and profitability in the coming quarter or two."

Where has operator optimism changed the most versus two months ago?

The read-through: Consumer sentiment is stabilizing, but the improvement is uneven. The weakest categories are RV dealers, home improvement, boat dealers, beer, auto dealers, fast food, and casual dining, all of which remain negative.

However, the strongest categories are Harley dealers, powersports, ag dealers, short-term rentals, convenience stores, and lodging.

The Harley outperformance is an outlier.

Operators expected that if the US-Iran conflict persisted into July, the impact would only be slightly negative.

Badishkanian and his team spoke with operators across various industries. Here is what they had to say

Leisure

We met with Harley's (HOG) investor relations to discuss trends in the business and conversation primarily focusing around retail sales, sustainability of the business, inventories, & new product launches. HOG highlighted that retail sales are accelerating, and dealer sentiment is improving for them, but there is still work to be done in order to maintain the momentum of the top-line. The team reiterated that inventories remain healthy worldwide, and mgm has prioritized destocking. The launches of the Sprint and Sportster models were brought up in the conversation as key initiatives for maintaining momentum into 2027. Mgmt highlighted that despite the newer, lower-priced bikes being lower margin they expect them to profitable and bring in a newer entry level customer to Harley.

We caught up with Norwegian's (NCLH) VP of Investor Relations & Corporate Communications this week when we talked through the 3Q yields pressure, revenue management, marketing strategy, the Great Stirrup Cay initiatives, and shore side cost management. NCLH still expects 3Q yields to be under the most pressure for the full year, and the company has started to shift towards getting 2027 on the right trajectory. The Great Stirrup Cay Water Park and Pier are set to open on September 4th, with an expectation for 25bps of yield lift in 2026 and 75bps for the full year '27. The team also highlighted a greater focus on marketing spend, & corporate costs shoreside.

Restaurants

Yum! Brands (YUM) has entered definitive agreements to sell Pizza Hut for $2.7B. Pizza Hut (excluding Pizza Hut China) will be acquired by LongRange capital for ~$1.5B. In addition, Pizza Hut China will be acquired by Yum! China for ~ $1.2B. The company will continue to provide Byte (its proprietary tech platform), as well as select corporate services to Pizza Hut ex-China. Yum! expects the fees from these services to offset corporate G&A expenses historically allocated to Pizza Hut. Both transactions are expected to close in 3Q26.

FAT Brands completed the final step of its bankruptcy restructuring, with FBG Bid Co. acquiring assets tied to 13 concepts for about $595 million and transferring more than 1,700 restaurants to a lender-backed group. The company filed for Chapter 11 in January under roughly $1.5 billion in debt. Twin Peaks was sold separately for $359.5 million, and Smokey Bones ceased operations after no buyer was found.

Food Retailers

Kroger (KR) reported roughly in-line 1Q results with expectations and reaffirmed its FY outlook. ID sales ex. fuel increased +1.0% (64bps headwind from egg deflation) vs consensus at +0.9% and decelerated 60bps on a 2-yr basis from the prior quarter. Adj EPS of $1.58 missed consensus at $1.59. Kroger continues to expect ID sales of +1.0-2.0% (including ~130 bps headwind from IRA) with the midpoint in line with consensus at +1.5%. Operating profit of $5.0-5.2bn is 3.4% above consensus of $4.93bn, as questions persist about the level of price investments to come. The EPS range of $5.10 to $5.30 is 3c below consensus.

Ahold Delhaize (Not Covered) announced the nomination of Claire Peters as the new CEO of Ahold Delhaize USA. Ahold Delhaize US operates Food Lion, Giant, Hannaford and Stop & Shop supermarket locations in the US. Claire most recently served as the VP fo Worldwide Fresh at Amazon, but has also held roles at Woolworth's Group & Tesco.

Broadlines & Hardlines

The Joint Center for Housing Studies released their 2026 State of Nation's Housing report this week. The report and webcast to follow were cautious as the affordability crisis continues to worsen, remodel spend is still above pre-COVID levels and pull forward remains a challenge for the industry. Median Home Prices remain elevated vs median household income, at nearly 2008 highs, and affordable units supply continues to be constrained. Click here for our full takeaways and data parsing.

Target (TGT) continues to accelerate the pace of change in the business. One of the best examples of this is fun 101, where Target is allowing merchants to have more runway in these categories to make changes. Recent announcements like the Issac Mizrahi partnership, Olivia Rodrigo's exclusive music launch, and even increased focus on Trading Cards are driving customers back to TGT. We think further leaning into Fun 101 and these cultural events will be an important part of Target's go-forward strategy and whether the business can maintain momentum. Read Spencer's full takeaways here.

La-Z-Boy (LZB; not covered), a furniture manufacturer, reported F'4Q results which beat Street estimates, with F'1Q guidance also ahead of consensus. Management believes they have levers to drive growth in their business, while the timing of a return to growth in the broader industry remains uncertain, but remain optimistic about an eventual rebound in furniture and home furnishings, which historically grew +3% to +4%

CarMax (KMX; not covered) posted F'1Q (ending May 31st) results ahead of expectations with EPS of $1.31 vs FC 97c. Sales were up +6.2% to $8.01bn vs FC for $7.42bn, led by higher wholesale revenue, which grew +14% (units: +8.4%; avg selling price: +5.1%). Used unit comps were also better than feared at -0.8% vs FC -2.7%

A consumer inflection point appears to be approaching, but the timing still largely hinges on fuel prices staying well below the $4 national average.