This Is Only Fifth Time QQQs Gapped Down When Within 2% Of An All Time High

In a day of sharp, downward pointing market moves and superlatives, we can add another: according to calculations from BTIG's Jonathan Krinsky, today's 2% gap down in the QQQs is a historic event. "Since QQQ's inception ('99), this is just the 5th time that's happened when the day prior was within 2% of a 52wk high and the VIX was below 20."

What happens next? While near-term returns are split, all four of the signals saw QQQ meaningfully lower over the next month. Hardly a shock judging by how extreme the upside moves in semis/AI have been.

Meanwhile, Krinsky continues to highlight the "screaming" divergences within the market, as the hyperscalers continue to trade poorly, and in S. Korea you had the KOSPI rally over 4% the last four days when each day had extremely negative breadth.

Whether or not we rally in the short-term, the BTIG strategist continues to see medium-term downside risk for the tech/AI trade with ~5% further to go for QQQ and 10-15% more for areas like SOXX.

The good news is so far correlations remain low and this appears to be rotational in nature, with areas like financials and biotech still looking good.

The Focus observations: 

• QQQ Study. QQQ gapped down over 2% this morning. Since QQQ's inception ('99), this is just the 5th time that's happened when the day prior was within 2% of a 52wk high and the VIX was below 20. The four priors were: 5/16/19, 1/27/20, 2/24/20 and 1/27/25. While near-term returns were split,all four of the signals saw QQQ meaningfully lower over the next month.

• How Much Downside? From current levels, BTIG sees ~5% more downside for QQQ and 10-15% for SOXX.
• What if We Rally? Given the 'buy the dip' mentality, a further rally from today's lows would not be surprising. QQQ already up more than 1% off session lows as of 10:30et. While BTIG doesn't foresee recent highs being exceeded in the near-term, both 2020 and 2025 did see new highs before ultimately rolling over (note that those highs also were aided by COVID-19 and the 'tariff tantrum').

• The Good News. As of 11:30et, S&P breadth was +84 with five sectors green. REITs, banks, and insurers continue look good, as does Biotech, although XBI is a bit extended very short-term. For now, it still appears to be a positioning unwind rather than the start of a high-correlation selloff, and that allows other areas to work while the tech/AI trade takes a much-needed breather.

• Dollar Up, Gold Down. With the DXY breaking out through 100, a move towards 104 looks likely which should pressure gold down below 4k.

More in the full BTIG report available here.