Rebound In Used Luxury Watches Continues
During the COVID-era flood of free money, from stimulus checks to the Federal Reserve's zero-interest-rate policy, luxury watch prices skyrocketed to the moon. But once that liquidity boom faded and interest rates were pushed sharply higher to rein in the inflation monster fueled by helicopter money, the secondary luxury market slid into a multi-year correction.
Over the last year and a half, however, that downturn appears to have bottomed out (see here and here), with prices continuing to rebound.
The Bloomberg Subdial Watch Index, which tracks prices for the 50 most-traded watches by value on the secondary market, bottomed in January 2025, about 1.5 years ago, and has been tracking higher ever since.
- Subdial's used Rolex index bottomed around $11,000 in January 2025 and has since rebounded to nearly $12,000.
- And used Audemars Piguet watch prices.
A more granular look at the used Rolex watch index shows the Rolex Submariner Date ...
... bottomed in the summer of 2025 at around $9,800 and has marginally increased to about $10,200 this month - still far from the $13,500 COVID-era highs.
However, price action across the luxury watch market has not been uniform and largely depends on shifting consumer tastes and the interest rate environment.
Great reads:
Industry insights:
- Did Gen-Z Just Get A Taste For Fancy Used-Watches
- "Winner Takes All": UBS Speaks With Swiss Watch Industry Insider On "Stabilizing Market"
In recent weeks, Audemars Piguet and Swatch launched an affordable $400 pocket watch that generated massive consumer demand - mostly because of the price point.
- • Luxury watch prices bottomed in January 2025 and are now steadily rebounding.
- • Top brands like Patek Philippe and Rolex are leading the recovery through a winner takes all market dynamic.
- • The market is stabilizing due to inventory reduction and rising retail prices.
The luxury market experienced a massive, artificial bubble fueled by COVID era stimulus checks and zero interest rate policies. This liquidity boom created unsustainable price peaks that required a multi year correction once the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy.
Christian Perspective
The pursuit of luxury goods often reflects the sin of materialism and the idolatry of wealth. While stewardship of assets is wise, the speculative frenzy seen in these markets demonstrates a lack of contentment and a focus on temporal treasures rather than eternal ones.
Implications
A market driven by excess liquidity and consumerism highlights the decadence of a society detached from hard work and biblical frugality. This trend suggests that even as the economy corrects, the culture remains obsessed with status symbols rather than building strong, stable families.
Broader Trends
The volatility of these markets is a direct result of the failed liberal economic experiments and helicopter money used by globalist institutions. This instability undermines the financial security of the American family and serves the interests of a parasitic financial elite.
Takeaway
Focus on building generational wealth through tangible assets and disciplined stewardship rather than chasing speculative bubbles. Prioritize the economic health of the American household over the consumption of luxury goods. True stability comes from God and a strong, self reliant nation, not from the whims of the Federal Reserve.
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