Key Events This Week: ISM, FOMC Minutes And Fed Speakers

The week after payrolls is usually a quieter affair but there's plenty of global events even if the US calendar is light.

In terms of the main highlights, given the current focus on monetary policy the FOMC minutes (Wednesday) and the ECB’s June meeting account (Thursday) will be carefully watched, especially the former given it was the first of the new Warsh regime. Speeches from Fed Governors Waller (Monday), Williams and Logan (Thursday) will provide a more "live" update to the committees' thinking. Elsewhere, China inflation data (Thursday) and a run of German activity indicators including factory orders (today), industrial production (tomorrow) and trade (Thursday) are worth tracking. German reforms in recent weeks have offered some renewed optimism that we will finally see the benefits of the huge fiscal spending and reform agenda after skepticism had been building. Geopolitically, the NATO summit (Tuesday–Wednesday) will also be in focus, with Trump in attendance, and could generate plenty of headlines.

In terms of other data and events, today sees ISM services (Monday) which follows the recent weakness in manufacturing, where DB economists expect a modest improvement. Most of the other data in the US is second tier but includes existing home sales on Thursday. Outside of the US, the BoE’s financial stability report (tomorrow) will be interesting, while inflation prints from Sweden (Wednesday) and Denmark and Norway (Friday) deserve a glance. In Japan, the data flow includes labor cash earnings and household spending (tomorrow), the Economy Watchers survey (Wednesday) and PPI (Friday). Elsewhere, we will see the RBNZ policy decision (Wednesday), where economists expect a rate hike, and Canada’s labor market report (Friday).

Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of events

Monday July 6

• Data: US June ISM services, UK June new car registrations, construction PMI, Germany May factory orders, June construction PMI, Eurozone May PPI, retail sales, Canada June services PMI
• Central banks: Fed’s Waller speaks, ECB's Schnabel, Wunsch and Lane speak, BoE’s Mann speaks, BoC business outlook

Tuesday July 7

• Data: US May trade balance, China June foreign reserves, Japan May labor cash earnings, household spending, leading index, coincident index, Germany May industrial production, France May trade balance, Canada May international merchandise trade
• Central banks: ECB's Panetta and Kocher speak, BoE’s financial stability report
• Auctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn)
• Other: NATO summit (through July 8), French Court ruling on Marine Le Pen’s eligibility to run for President

Wednesday July 8

• Data: US May wholesale trade sales, consumer credit, Japan May BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance, June bank lending, Economy Watchers survey, France May current account balance, Sweden June CPI, May GDP indicator 
• Central banks: FOMC minutes, ECB's Kocher, Moulin, Nagel and Dolenc speak, RBNZ decision
• Auctions: US 10-yr Notes (reopening, $39bn)

Thursday July 9

• Data: US June existing home sales, initial jobless claims, China June CPI, PPI, UK June RICS house price balance, Japan June M2, M3, machine tool orders, Germany May trade balance
• Central banks: ECB’s account of the June meeting, Fed's Williams and Logan speak, BoE’s Breeden speaks
• Earnings: PepsiCo
• Auctions: US 30-yr Bond (reopening, $22bn)

Friday July 10

• Data: Japan June PPI, Italy May industrial production, Canada June labour force survey, May building permits, Denmark June CPI, Norway June CPI
• Central banks: ECB’s Vujcic and Stournaras speak
• Earnings: Delta Air Lines

Looking at the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the ISM services index on Monday. There are a few speaking engagements with Fed officials this week, including events with Governor Waller and Presidents Williams and Logan. The minutes to the FOMC’s June meeting will be released on Wednesday.

Monday, July 6 

• 09:45 AM S&P Global US services PMI, June final (consensus 51.3, last 51.3)
• 10:00 AM ISM services index, June (GS 54.0, consensus 54.0, last 54.5): We estimate that the ISM services index declined to 54.0 in June. Our non-manufacturing survey tracker was unchanged in June but remained below the latest ISM services reading at 52.9.
• 11:00 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will take part in a policy panel at a conference in Rome. On May 22, Waller said that while he did not think the FOMC should hike “in the near future,” he could “no longer rule out rate hikes further down the road if inflation does not abate soon,” especially if inflation expectations showed “signs of becoming unanchored.” At the same time, Waller said there would need to be “improvement on inflation or a significant deterioration in the labor market” for him to support cuts. 

Tuesday, July 7 

• 08:30 AM Trade balance, May (GS -$78.5bn, consensus -$78.8bn, last -$55.9bn)

Wednesday, July 8 

• 10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, May final (last +0.3%)
• 02:00 PM FOMC meeting minutes, June 16-17 meeting: The FOMC left the funds rate unchanged at 3.5-3.75% and removed the previous forward guidance suggesting cuts from its statement at the June FOMC meeting. But the meeting delivered a hawkish surprise, with nine participants projecting a hike in 2026 (vs. our expectation of three). That said, we suspect that FOMC participants treated the news about a deal with Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—which emerged only a few days before the meeting—cautiously. Chairman Warsh also noted earlier this week that “inflation expectations have come down, and inflation risks have come down” at a panel discussion in Sintra, Portugal. We will look for details in the minutes on the assumptions underlying participants’ economic outlook and views of the balance of risks at the time.

Thursday, July 9 

• 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 3 (GS 225k, consensus 220k, last 215k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended June 27 (consensus 1,815k, last 1,814k)
• 09:00 AM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will take part in a moderated discussion at a conference on market liquidity and functioning hosted by the New York Fed and The Clark Center for Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. On June 25, Williams said that the current stance of monetary policy was “well positioned” to restore inflation to the Fed’s 2% target. Williams said he expected inflation to “edge down” as tariff effects faded, supply disruptions from the Middle East got resolved, and slow rent growth translated into a lower pace of shelter inflation. He noted that medium-term inflation expectations “have remained well anchored through May.” 
• 10:00 AM Existing home sales, June (GS +2.5%, consensus +0.7%, last +3.2%)
• 01:30 PM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will moderate a panel on market liquidity at a conference hosted by the New York Fed and The Clark Center for Global Markets at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. On June 3, Logan noted that “inflation appears to be trending toward the mid 2’s—not all the way back to 2 percent” and that “above-target inflation can become entrenched if it persists too long.” At the same time, Logan said economic activity “remains strong,” financial conditions are “accommodative,” and the labor market “appears stable and broadly balanced.” Logan stressed she was “increasingly concerned that higher interest rates could be necessary later this year to fully restore price stability and appropriately balance both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate.”

Friday, July 10 

• There are no major economic data releases scheduled.

Source: DB, GS, Barc