Stellar 3Y Auction Stops Through Even As Yields Hit 1 Month High

With yields blowing out today as they followed the sharp increase in oil prices after Iran struck no less than 3 ships crossing the Hormuz Strait (with a Trump response sure to follow), we doubt there was much focus on today's 3Y auction. Which is unfortunate because despite the selloff in the secondary market, the auction itself was quite solid. 

The sale of $58BN in 3 Year paper, the week's first coupon auction, priced at a high yield of 4.179%, down modestly from 4.192% in June which was the highest since Feb 2025. It also stopped through the When Issued 4.185% by 0.6bps, and followed two tailing auctions.

The bid to cover was 2.600, down from 2.645 and below the recent average of 2.645 although as shown in the chart below, the BTC for the tenor appears to have flatlined between 2.5 and 2.7 over the past 6 years. 

The internals were stronger, with Indirects awarded 67.5% of the auction, up from 63.71% last month and the highest since April (also well above the recent average of 62.5%). And with Directs taking 7.7%, down notably from 15.3% a month ago, Dealers were left with 24.75% of the auction, the highest since February. 

Overall, this was a very strong 3Y auction which curiously comes in a very ugly day for the bond complex, which seemingly oblivious of the strong primary demand, has pushed 10Y yields to a session high of 4.523%, the highest since June 10, and rising fast.