Goldman Slashes Global PC Shipment Forecast As Memory Chip Crunch Derails Upgrade Cycle

The global PC market is facing mounting pressure as a worsening memory-chip crunch, limited product availability, and consumers balking at higher prices threaten to deepen the downturn. These headwinds prompted Goldman analysts to "further trim" their PC shipment forecasts for this year and next.

"We further trim our global PC shipment estimates for 2026-27E, considering the near-term pressures of higher memory and CPU costs, and the flattening replacement cycle following the end of Win 10," said Allen Chang, a managing director and head of Goldman's Greater China Technology research team.

Chang continued, "We now expect global PC shipments to be down -14%/ -5% YoY in 2026E/ 27E, followed by zero growth in 2028E (vs. -10%/ +3%/ +3% YoY previously). Our updated PC shipment forecasts are 255m/ 243m/ 244m in 2026-28E, respectively."

Global PC Shipments: -14%/ -5%/ 0% YoY in 2026-28E

Global PC Revenues: -5%/ -2%/ +3% YoY in 2026 / 27E

PC ASP: increasing pricing due to specification upgrades and rising BoM

Global PC shipments: consumer vs. commercial

Chang noted that AI PCs are expected to remain a top growth driver:

We expect global AI PC shipments to reach 150m / 199m in 2026E / 28E (+15% CAGR), vs. 150m / 219m in our previous forecast, indicating 59% / 82% penetration of the total PC shipments worldwide. We expect global AI PC revenues to be US$169bn / 221bn in 2026E/ 28E (+14% CAGR), vs. US$169bn/ $226bn previously. We are positive on AI PC penetration ramp up in 2026E, with continuous introduction of new AI applications, such as OpenClaw and Seedance by Bytedance.

We expect global Gaming PC shipment to reach 26m / 28m in 2026E / 28E (+4% CAGR, vs. -2% CAGR for overall PC shipments), indicating 10% / 12% penetration of the total PC shipments worldwide. We expect global Gaming PC revenues to be US$46bn / $52bn in 2026E/ 28E (+7% CAGR, vs. +1% CAGR for overall PC revenues), riding on customers' rising specialized needs for PCs. We model global Gaming PC ASP to increase, driven by specification upgrades (report link), including graphic card platform upgrades, thinner design, AI features, silent mode, and long durability, which would bring better user experience when enjoying triple-A games.

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