HSBC Upgrades Apple To Buy, Sees "AI Boost" Sparking Device-Upgrade Cycle

Days after KeyBanc analysts Brandon Nispel and John Vinh downgraded Apple over concerns that soaring memory chip costs and rising iPad, Mac, and iPhone prices could spark a growth slowdown, HSBC analysts took the opposite view, upgrading the stock to a "Buy" rating to end the week.

HSBC analyst Nicolas Cote-Colisson upgraded Apple to "Buy" from "Hold" on Friday morning and raised his price target to $366 from $260, telling clients that an "AI boost comes at the right moment" and could unleash a major device-upgrade cycle.

Cote-Colisson explained:

A new cycle ahead.

Thus far, we had retained a cautious approach on Apple with a Hold rating.

We had preferred other segments of the AI value chain, more prompt to exploit the bottlenecks created by the high demand in computing power, including hyperscalers or memory makers.

We think Apple is now at an operational turning point: not only can the company stay away from the (too) high capex debate (it only invests 2.5% of its 2026e sales vs 39% for hyperscalers, see page 10), we think it is also well placed to leverage its 2.5bn installed device base with its forthcoming revamped Apple Intelligence.

This AI boost comes at the right moment, when we think Apple has one of its most innovative product pipelines in place.

Cote-Colisson pointed out that Apple is at an "inflection point" as it prepares to deploy an agentic version of Siri capable of accessing information across applications and executing more complex tasks:

• New AI features coming this year represent a key catalyst for an acceleration in Apple's hardware and Services revenue
• Recent price hikes show confidence from Apple that pricing power can limit the negative impact of memory pricing on margin

HSBC expects the AI overhaul to coincide with a strong product pipeline that includes the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, a book-style foldable iPhone, an iPhone Air, a 20th-anniversary model and eventually AI-powered smart glasses. The combination could accelerate upgrades across Apple's installed base of more than 2.5 billion active devices, particularly among owners of the iPhone 15 and 16.

Putting this all together, the analyst expects the AI overhaul and robust pipeline to begin the "start of a fundamental shift that will force a faster hardware refresh across the 2.5bn+ active device installed base."

Cote-Colisson also raised Apple's 2027 and 2028 revenue estimates by 7% to 9%, including an 11% to 13% increase in his iPhone forecasts. He expects iPhone sales to rise 11.6% in fiscal 2027, compared with the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 8.3%. He also lifted his 2027 Services revenue forecast by 5.4%.

His fiscal 2027 earnings-per-share estimate increased about 8% to $10.26, or 7.5% above consensus. Cote-Colisson expects EPS growth of roughly 16% that year, compared with a 12% median among Apple's peers.

Cote-Colisson pointed out that rising memory prices remain a significant risk: "Downside risks include competition from AI labs introducing new form factors that could challenge smartphones and a longer-than-expected global memory chip shortage compressing margins, although we believe Apple can command a significant degree of pricing power."

Earlier in the week, KeyBanc analysts Brandon Nispel and John Vinh downgraded Apple from "Sector Weight" to "Underweight" amid fears that rising device prices due to the memory crunch will hit sales in the coming quarters.

In mid-June, Apple CEO Tim Cook told the WSJ in an exclusive interview that price hikes were "unavoidable" because of the memory chip crunch.

Latest Bloomberg data shows 36 "Buy" ratings, 18 "Neutral" ratings, and 4 "Sell" ratings on the stock, with an average 12-month price target of $322.

$322 PT 

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