Deutsche Bank: Humanoid Robot Market Accelerates Globally As China Ramps Production

The latest "Humanoid Robot Pulse" report from Deutsche Bank states that the global humanoid robot market is accelerating, with China, unsurprisingly, leading the race.

"The humanoid robot market is accelerating globally. China is leading in production, with government officials estimating 100,000 units of humanoid robot production in 2026, significantly higher than our expectation of ~40,000 units," analyst Iris Zheng wrote in the report.

The Hong Kong-based Deutsche Bank analyst specializes in Asia-Pacific automation and industrials, providing clients with key updates across the industry:

1. Activities in the US stepping up: Agility going public through SPAC by 4Q26; Meta acquiring an embodied AI model startup; OpenAI recruiting robotics engineers; and NVIDIA expanding its robotics team in China.
2. Continuing developments in China: AGIBOT accelerating production; updates from BYD and Li Auto on robotics; Alibaba unveiling robotic models; and Kepler undergoing acquisition.
3. Policy updates: China to produce 100,000 humanoids in 2026; Shanghai to deploy 100,000 humanoids by 2030; the US could restrict Chinese robotics; and Japan to deploy 10mn AI robots by 2040.
4. Use case: Livestreaming of humanoids working in factories and warehouses by AGIBOT and Figure.
5. Emotional companion: Bionic humanoids from UBTECH and DOBOT.

More color here:

In the US, Agility Robotics utilizes a 75% locally sourced supply chain and aims to reduce the bill of materials (BOM) cost from US$125k currently to US$30k.

AGIBOT and Figure AI have livestreamed their humanoid robots working in factories and warehouses, demonstrating commercial viability.

How to profit:

This rapidly developing market indicates growing component demand, which bodes well for component manufacturers. Within our APAC Industrials coverage, we prefer Hengli (Buy, closing price RMB110.58), Shuanghuan (Buy, closing price RMB42.39), Harmonic Drive (Buy, closing price ¥7,430), and Yaskawa (Buy, closing price ¥5,490). We also highlight Tesla (Buy, closing price US$394.46) and Mobileye (Buy, closing price US$9.43) (through Mentee Robotics) as humanoid robotic OEMs in the US.

The rise of physical AI has prompted Blackstone, the world's largest alternative asset manager, to place a major bet on Futronic, an automotive supplier that has adapted its motion-control technology for use in actuators for humanoid robots.

Related:

• Automakers Race Into Humanoid Robots As Timeline For Blue-Collar Job Disruption Emerges

Professional subscribers can read a lot more on humanoid robots at our new Marketdesk.ai portal.