"It's Getting Worse": HSBC Warns Commodities Face Squeeze As Chokepoint Chaos Spreads

The key takeaway heading into the weekend is that maritime chokepoint chaos has spread from the Strait of Hormuz to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, while fighting across the Black Sea has intensified between Russia and Ukraine. The widening disruptions have prompted several institutional desks this week to warn that a potential squeeze on physical commodity markets could send prices from energy to agricultural goods higher.

"The Middle East conflict has escalated, putting a substantial squeeze back into commodity markets," Paul Bloxham, HSBC's chief economist for Australia, New Zealand and global commodities, wrote in a note on Friday morning.

Bloxham continued, "Traffic through Hormuz has almost stalled again, and the disruption has spread to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the key access point for the Red Sea, for Saudi oil going to Asia and Europe-Asia trade through the Suez Canal."

Bloxham warned that with Brent trading above $100 a barrel and strategic petroleum reserves being rapidly depleted worldwide, energy markets face a mounting risk of a "super-squeeze."

His message was blunt: "It's not over yet," adding, "Hormuz, Mandeb, oil at 100 ... it's getting worse. "

Here's more:

The Brent oil price has risen sharply, to over USD100/b recently; European and Asian gas prices are more than 40% m-o-m; refined product prices, like jet fuel and diesel are surging; urea prices are up 13%; and wheat prices are at a three year high – all on supply constraint concerns. With inventory rundown having been a key adjustment factor preventing much bigger prices spikes earlier in the conflict, and stocks now much lower, concerns about 'tank bottom' levels and non-linearities are expected to come back into focus. It's a 'super-squeeze'. And it's not over yet.

Bloxham also highlighted the market mechanics that prevented Brent from spiking even higher a few months back, including US strategic reserve releases and China's reduction of oil imports and SPR.

But he warned that these buffers are finite and can suppress the price shock for only so long:

As we have actively written about over the past few months, a key reason that commodity prices – particularly oil – did not spike higher earlier has been active reduction of inventories, particularly with the US release of strategic reserves and in China, where oil imports have been drawn down (see 'Better, but the Hormuz disruption is not over yet', 25 June 2026; and 'Hormuz is reshaping commodity markets', 25 May 2026).

However, the challenge is that inventory reduction can only provide an offset for so long.

At some point, concerns about stocks falling to critical levels may show up in non-linearities in markets (see Hormuz still closed: Beware Strait non-linearities, 28 April 2026). However, even with a deep-dive looks at measured stocks and supply pathways, it is hard to be definitive about when reserves will reach these critical levels. Commodity markets are highly adaptable, and when the demand is there, flexible markets often find a way to deliver. Aggregate price benchmarks also only go so far. In the face of acute supply shocks, commodity markets tend to fragment, with many different prices for the same products in different locations and for different delivery times (see More fragmentation as Hormuz blockage continues, 13 April 2026).

That said, the longer the disruption is in place – and the recent escalation suggests it is, indeed, going on for longer – the more likely it becomes that commodity prices will spike higher, in non-linear ways, as stocks are depleted.

A growing list of institutional commodity desks, including Goldman Sachs, RBC Capital Markets and JPMorgan, has warned that the expanding maritime chokepoint crisis is entering a more dangerous phase.

Helima Croft, RBC's head of global commodity strategy, cautioned that the "war enters a dangerous phase with the Red Sea and critical infrastructure at risk."

These desks have raised their near-term Brent forecasts as the disruption spreads. Goldman commodities strategist Daan Struyven warned that Brent could exceed $120 a barrel in the fourth quarter if the Hormuz crisis persists.

Related:

• Oil's Next Move Hinges On Three Variables
• The Oil Time Bomb: How To Play It

With the US national average for regular gasoline now above $4 a gallon, the energy shock has crossed a politically sensitive level (again), which could increase pressure on the Trump administration to pursue a diplomatic off-ramp.