Ukraine's Drone Campaign Against The 'Russian Amazon' Is Driven By Political Motives

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

The goal is to create a growing class of malcontents by inflicting major harm to small business owners who might then shift the electoral odds against the ruling party ahead of September’s next elections and later possibly form the core of a future protest movement that could be exploited from abroad.

Ukraine’s US-assisted long-range drone campaign against Russia has recently begun targeting the country’s online retailer Wildberries, which is essentially the “Russian Amazon”, with recent strikes either totally destroying or greatly damaging several of its logistics centers. The Financial Times cited Russia’s edition of Forbes to report that these attacks might have already destroyed 150-275 billion rubles’ worth of inventory thus far, equivalent to around $2-3.5 billion, or more than Wildberries’ net profit last year.

They also importantly cited Alexander Kolyandr, a director at Eurasia Group, who told them that “The loss of the goods will put thousands of traders out of business, resulting in unpaid taxes, defaulted loans and the like.” Therein lies the political motive behind Ukraine’s drone campaign against the “Russian Amazon”. Zelensky announced a 40-day influence operation against Russia late last month with the objective of coercing it into a ceasefire without any concessions from Ukraine or its Western patrons.

It’ll formally end in early August, so nearly six weeks before the next Duma elections in late September, the first since the special operation began as the last ones were in 2021. His influence operation will likely be extended, however, even if only informally. With this political context in mind as well as the explicitly stated goal that he aims to achieve, it’s clear that Zelensky authorized his forces to do whatever they can to maximally inconvenience average Russians for the purpose of turning them against Putin.

This explains the prior spree of strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, which led to a spike in fuel costs that Ukraine expected would raise prices across the board due to higher transport costs for slashing average Russians’ disposable income, and the Wildberries campaign is the next phase. Harming small businesses more directly affects average Russians, both buyers and of course sellers, and the particular intent appears to be to create a new and growing class of malcontents within the country.

If taken to its extreme, and it’s possible that more logistics centers will be targeted and at least damaged since 18 of the 20 largest in Russia are reportedly within range of Ukrainian drones, this could have long-term socio-political and economic consequences for Russia. The state, which is already under financial strain due to the combination of sanctions, attacks against its energy infrastructure, and the recent large-scale destruction of small business’ taxable inventory, might thus be pressured to bail them out.

Inadequate support for struggling small business owners could shift the electoral odds against the ruling party in what would then be spun as a symbolic setback to Putin, create the earlier mentioned class of malcontents, and thus possibly rekindle long-dormant protest potential that could be exploited from abroad. The consequences could therefore cascade in the worst-case, which admittedly isn’t likely since the state still has time to avert it, so it’s premature to expect this yet it also shouldn’t be ruled out either.

The larger trend is that Ukraine’s spree of strikes against Russia is gradually evolving from showmanship into strategy, assisted as it’s been by the US, which provides targeting intelligence and overall guidance to its proxy. “Trump 2.0’s Escalation Strategy Against Russia Is Starting To Take Shape”, and it’s centered on a “war of attrition” that’s now setting its sights on largely civilian targets like Wildberries, the aim of which is to advance political goals that are in any case unlikely to get Putin to declare a ceasefire.