Watch Live: Fed Chair Warsh Explains 'Hawkish' Hold

Having delivered the biggest "non-cut" surprise to markets in decades - by holding rates unchanged (markets were pricing a 35% chance of a hike) - and given Warsh’s distaste for forward guidance, he is unlikely to offer any clearer signals during the press conference.

Bear in mind that since 2015, traders have foreseen the Fed’s ultimate rate decision with an average error of 2.4 basis points the day before the central bank’s announcement, according to a note from Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets.

“The market is set up for a sharper kneejerk response to the FOMC announcement than is typically the case,” Lyngen said.

Jonathan Pingle, chief US economist at UBS, said he hadn’t felt this uncertain about an imminent Fed rate decision in 20 years, back when Ben Bernanke became Fed chair.

However, the three dissents in favor of a rate hike clearly show the direction of travel,and that may prove helpful to Warsh if he aims to tamp down inflation pressures.

While yields are down and gold up after the statement, the dissenters would suggest this decision leans hawkish (Goldman expected 2 dissents, so marginally hawkish).

Warsh will likely emphasize that all options remain open, and that future decisions will depend on the data.

Desks anticipate a continued emphasis on the inflation side of the dual mandate, without offering any type of commitment for future hikes, though he might also acknowledge the upside risks to inflation posed by the latest rise in oil prices.

He recently announced the leaders of the five Chairman’s Task Forces for Advancing Monetary Policy and might provide an update on the timeline for their work.

Watch the full press conference live here (due to start at 1430ET):