Feedom Of Navigation

By Bas van Geffen, senior market strategist at Rabobank

The Houthis are considering charging fees on vessels sailing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Reuters reported that the plan was discussed with Iran’s leadership, who have offered help to set up an authority to collect the toll.

Besides the potential revenue source, the aim of the Bab el-Mandeb fees would reportedly be to normalize the idea of charging fees on international waters.

But freedom isn’t fees. President Trump has repeatedly rejected the idea of Iran levying a toll in the Strait of Hormuz, so why would the US president accept such a plan in any other strait? European countries have also vehemently opposed that idea. Moreover, the Houthis indicated that Chinese vessels would be exempted from these fees – creating a clear split in the freedom of navigation for different camps. So, the plan could also be used to put further pressure on the US and its allies.

The US has, meanwhile, stepped up its attacks against Iran, in retaliation for the Iranian strikes on its military bases Jordan. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump has been briefed on a two-week campaign of air strikes that could impact Iran’s missile capabilities. However, Iran managed to recover relatively quickly after operation Epic Fury.

Moreover, according to press reports, China is sending hundreds of rocket launchers to Iran. The shoulder-fired weapons are harder to take out, due to their mobility. And these mobile air defences make any US campaign more difficult and riskier.

The potential implications of the weapons sale reach far beyond the Middle East. China’s support for Iran could indicate that Beijing is hoping to use this as a proxy war or a war of attrition against the US – with reports of dwindling weapons stockpiles. Or, at least, to expose the US’s vulnerabilities.

At the very least, the arms deal goes against President Xi’s promise to Trump not to supply any weapons to Iran. That, in turn, could perhaps cause the White House to reconsider its own arms deliveries to Taiwan. President Trump paused these deliveries after meeting with Xi in May.

The renewed escalation in the Middle East is putting some upward pressure on energy prices again. Brent touched $93 per barrel this morning.

Despite the ongoing inflation risks from the Iran war, the Fed refrained from any policy action. However, the Fed’s “family fight” did cause a big split between the central bankers: three FOMC members cast a dissenting vote, favoring a rate hike instead.

These dissents clearly demonstrate that support for a rate hike is building. That should keep market speculation of a rate hike alive in the coming weeks. We acknowledge that the risk of a rate hike in the coming months has increased, but we still believe that the Fed is more likely to stay on hold through 2026.

The policy statement was largely identical to last month’s, and Chair Warsh talked a lot about the FOMC’s commitment to meeting its 2% inflation target. However, the lack of policy action may have damaged Warsh’ inflation fighting credentials yesterday. Long-term US yields rose after the policy decision: the 30-year yield hit a 19-year high in Asian trading and remains above 5.2%.