"Really Only One Thing Worries Us A Lot": Here's What Keeps Goldman's Commodities Guru Up At Night

Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman, joined Bloomberg TV on Monday morning and warned that diesel sits at the epicenter of a worsening global fuel supply squeeze, as Ukrainian drone and missile strikes disrupt Russian refining and the US-Iran war disrupts tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Dart joined Haslinda Amin on Insight with Haslinda Amin to discuss growing risks in diesel markets.

She warned, "The situation in Russia is really one thing that worries us a lot," adding, "The Russia issue has been going on now for, what, four years? So this can keep going."

Amin asked Dart: "And finally, your conviction call. What's the one bet in the commodity space for the next 12-24 months?"

Dart responded:

"Yeah, so I've mentioned a couple of things. I'd say on the oil side, as I mentioned before, diesel, I think is the oil product that is most vulnerable right now, not just because you have your seasonal demand strength ahead just in the winter, but on the supply side. And to your point in the beginning, it's not just that you run war, it's what's happening to the Russian refineries as well. And Russia is usually a pretty big exporter of diesel. And now they have restricted it."

Dart continued:

"So we are recommending a long diesel time spread. So going long the December contract of this year and short, the March contract of next year, so a spread trade.

And on the natural gas side, the sort of controversial call that we have is that after this crisis is over, this is a market in oversupply. So we look at the forward end of the curve, the back end of the curve, and it's overpriced. So we have been recommending a short for summer 2028 European natural gas TTF."

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Dart's conversation with Amin builds on another Goldman note published last week by commodity expert Daan Struyven, who warned that "Diesel is at the epicenter of the supply squeeze." 

Struyven introduced a new global refinery-runs nowcast, estimating that global refinery runs have plunged to their lowest seasonal level since the Covid era. 

Last week we noted that European gasoil crack has surged above $70 a barrel as refiners run near capacity, with diesel and jet supplies constrained by outages, shipping risks, and reduced Russian exports.

The diesel market is increasingly becoming a focal point for Goldman's commodities team as tight global supplies head into the seasonally stronger winter demand period. Disruptions stretching from the Hormuz chokepoint to Russian refinery outages and export restrictions are tightening an already constrained market, raising the risk of further price increases. If these supply pressures persist into winter, diesel could emerge as one of the most closely watched commodities.