"In Uncharted Waters": The SpaceX Lockup Expiration Begins

SpaceX shares are hovering near record lows after the company's first earnings report as a publicly traded company beat expectations. However, as we noted Tuesday, Thursday's first lockup expiration is likely the more significant near-term catalyst than earnings.

The first insider share lockup expires today and more than doubles the float from about 639 million to 1.55 billion. That means about 911.5 million shares of new supply are inbound for the market.

HSBC analysts Nicolas Cote-Colisson and Charlie Rothbarth recently mapped out the staggered lockup-expiration schedule:

SpaceX's IPO prospectus indicated that 555,555,555 shares would be issued to constitute the free float. We understand that the underwriters have exercised their option to purchase additional shares of Class A common stock in full, so the free float would have extended to 638,888,888 shares.

We identify 4,678m locked up shares and another 8,160m shares subject to an extended lockup. Based on the information provided by the SpaceX prospectus dated 12 June 2026, we calculate that 912m shares could be available for sale in the public market from 6 August 2026, compared with 640m shares constituting the free float at present. The free float would increase from 4.9% at present to 11.8%.

Another release event could occur on the same day depending on SpaceX shares trading above USD175.5 for at least five of 10 consecutive trading days ending on 4 August 2026 (i.e. between 22 July and 4 August 2026). The table below provides further event/date triggers for subsequent share releases.

Those restricted shares are currently owned by funds and individuals that have participated in the private rounds of financing and may be inclined to keep their shares. But we think investors should be aware of this.

Lockup expiration roadmap:

"We've never seen anything like it. We've never seen anything of this scale, and we've never seen a lockup phased in this way," Peter Singlehurst, head of Baillie Gifford's private companies team, which first invested in Musk's company in 2018, told Bloomberg. "We're in uncharted waters."

The incoming wave of supply has attracted short sellers to pile bearish bets on SpaceX. Data compiled by S3 Partners through Tuesday's close shows that 35% of the float is sold short.

That short interest is so concerning to Musk that he even felt compelled to comment and taunt bears hours before earnings on Tuesday.

"I try to warn them, but they just double down...," Musk wrote in an X post responding to a report citing proprietary data from S3 Partners.

I try to warn them, but they just double down … 🤷‍♂️

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 4, 2026

Shares initially rallied following Musk's comments but have since reversed course, sliding back toward the $109 level. On Monday, the stock touched a record low of $104.83, leaving it 22.4% below its $135 offering price and 53.5% beneath its June peak of $225. The selloff has erased more than $1 trillion in market value.

Here's how Wall Street currently views the stock:

A large trading desk told us earlier this week that its team has yet to initiate any buy orders but may begin considering a long position once the first lockup expiration is underway.