Apple's Foldable iPhone Moment Arrives: New CEO Ternus Faces First Big Wall Street Test

Apple is expected to unveil its long-awaited foldable handset, rumored to be called the "iPhone Ultra," at today's big product event, scheduled for 1 p.m. ET and led by new CEO John Ternus.

"Watching Apple's event is later today… huge index weight, first major event under John Ternus, and potentially the first foldable iPhone. If the product/new CEO combination lands well, it could become a useful mega-cap catalyst," Goldman Sachs Delta-One desk head Rich Privorotsky told clients earlier.

Last-minute details about Apple’s foldable iPhone: the iPhone Duo 🚨

Source: @markgurman pic.twitter.com/nR8vvO9Xhe

— Apple Hub (@theapplehub) September 9, 2026

Today's event will give CEO Ternus an early opportunity to set Apple's new direction as Wall Street looks for evidence that AI and new products can translate into hardware upgrades and greater adoption of Apple's services.

Whether the foldable iPhone is called "iPhone Ultra" or, as some have suggested, "iPhone Duo" remains irrelevant at this point because, yet again, Apple is testing the premium market, with rumored prices north of $2,000 for the model with 256 gigabytes of storage and $3,000 for the top-tier version. Bloomberg reported last week that memory costs were among the reasons for the price hikes.

Wait, the new iphone starts at $2400?

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 8, 2026

Apple is also expected to raise iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max prices by $100 each. Those models will mostly retain familiar designs while adding upgrades to the camera, battery, processing, and other components. Apple is expected to release the standard iPhone 18 and other lower-priced models next year.

Melissa Otto, the global head of Visible Alpha Research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, wrote in a Tuesday note that the new foldable iPhone faces a demanding financial test: persuading consumers to spend as much on a handset as they would on a laptop.

Otto continued:

Apple's upcoming September 9 event will be John Ternus's first big hardware event and an opportunity for the market to see how he may put his thumbprint on the company. Last year's event was widely viewed as underwhelming, because there was little emphasis on AI and how the company may start to leverage its AI capabilities to drive innovation and stickiness in its ecosystem. This gap left many investors wondering what Apple's role will be in the new AI world and what may be next for the Company. Under Ternus's new leadership, the market is likely to be looking for clear indications about Apple's AI direction and how that may trickle into hardware upgrades and broader services adoption.

Apple is expected to release the new iPhone 18 with an enhanced Siri capability. In addition, the company is projected to showcase its first foldable phone. A foldable phone may serve as a catalyst for broader adoption of its higher margin services, as a larger screen option may be a key factor for some users. Based on Visible Alpha consensus, Apple is expected to sell 259 million iPhone units next fiscal year, flat year-over-year. Foldable phones at competitors are priced higher than current iPhones. For example, Samsung'sd foldable phone ranges from $1,899 to $2,999, compared to $989 to $1199 for an iPhone 17. Will a foldable model enable iPhone to raise prices on next generation models, or will they keep prices in line to grab to try to grab share?

Last year, promotional trade-ins at carriers for 13-series and above offered $1100 in credit (offsetting monthly payments, not lump sum). Coming into the important fall Back to School and holiday seasons, will these promotions reappear to entice users to upgrade? In Q4 2026, Apple is expected to generate $55.5 billion in iPhone revenue and $274.2 billion next year. Expectations for both the upcoming quarter and next fiscal year have been increasing steadily since last year, suggesting the market is pricing in users upgrading to next generation iPhones.

The event is also expected to feature updates to air pods and the apple watch. The wearables segment is projected to generate $36.2 billion in sales this fiscal year and $37.9 billion next year. Expectations for Services revenue in the upcoming Q4 2026 and in FY 2027 have declined since last quarter. Will these accessories, along with iPhone upgrades, help to drive higher sales and profitability longer-term through increased usage of service?

At the start of the week, Huawei Technologies and Xiaomi unveiled premium foldable phones priced similarly to the Apple foldable iPhone- mid-$2,500 range. 

Counterpoint analyst Ivan Lam said Apple has the "world's biggest premium device installed base," adding, "Its foldable will sell well and rapidly grab market share." He also noted that the new handset could spur broader consumer demand, giving rivals a lift.

Smart Analytics Global forecasts that Apple could capture 41% of worldwide foldable sales next year. Its entry will undoubtedly intensify competition across the foldable space.

However, Nikkei Asia reported last week that production of foldable iPhones remains limited ahead of today's launch.

"Apple has very high quality requirements and added an extra trial run in August ahead of actual production. However, production is ramping up slowly, with output currently at only a few hundred units a day in late August. That initial volume could be challenging to meet market demand," one supply chain manager told the Japanese news outlet.

For Ternus, the big challenge is convincing consumers facing $4 gasoline and record diesel prices to upgrade to a phone that costs as much as a laptop. Financing and trade-in incentives may soften the upfront cost but underlying affordability remains the most troubling picture for the demand story. Apple's disappointing $3,000-plus Vision Pro offers a cautionary lesson for the new CEO: premium pricing requires a compelling use case, and even monthly payment plans have limits.