Right-Wing Bolsonaro Overtakes Socialist Lula On Polymarket As Brazil Election Nears

Polymarket's "Brazil Presidential Election" market, with nearly $150 million in trading volume, now favors right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro over leftist President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva ahead of October's election. The shift follows polling data released earlier this week showing Bolsonaro pulling ahead in a hypothetical runoff, although the candidates remain statistically tied within the margin of error.

Bolsonaro took the lead on Polymarket around 8:20 a.m. ET, and by early Thursday afternoon, he stood at around 52.8% versus Lula's 44%.

On Tuesday, the BTG Pactual/Nexus survey showed that Bolsonaro had edged ahead of Lula for the first time. This comes as a deepening Supreme Court scandal strengthens the conservative challenger's campaign.

As the gap between Bolsonaro and Lula narrowed in recent weeks and the race became a toss-up, we pointed out an "explosive surge" in call open interest in the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ).

And someone appears to be making a huge bet on just that: explosive surge in EWZ call OI https://t.co/nqFaGgms4R pic.twitter.com/uen9bXmqBw

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 8, 2026

On Thursday, Citi chief Latin America economist Ernesto Revilla told clients that Latin America is "poised for take-off," as a right-wing political shift across the continent, a weaker dollar, firm commodity prices, and global supply-chain realignment were producing tailwinds for the region.

Also this week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio kicked off his South America tour on Tuesday, first meeting with Trump-backed Colombian President Abelardo de la Espriella to strengthen security and economic ties as several countries in the region shift toward right-wing governments. 

A Bolsonaro victory would cement South America's broader shift from unhinged left-wing regimes toward the common-sense right.