Coal Nears Breakout As Gulf Energy Shock Drives Utilities Back To Dirty Fuel Ahead Of Winter

Newcastle thermal coal futures are approaching the $150-a-ton breakout level as the global energy shock, most acute in industrial fuels, encourages utilities to shift toward coal ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter while electrification trends and all things AI expand electricity demand. 

UBS metals and mining analyst Myles Allsop wrote in a note this week that thermal coal prices face a number of factors colliding at once that could push prices higher over the next few months: 

We see a number of risks that could drive up thermal coal prices over next few months, with 1) demand supported by a hot summer (increasing demand for cooling), the high gas price (due to the ME conflict) and potentially a cold winter in the Northern Hemisphere due to the 'super El Niño' (conditions to peak in Dec), and 2) supply at risk from Chinese safety checks, Indonesian government policy, Russian diesel shortages, and potentially weather-related disruption, e.g. droughts and water shortages. 

We note that most of these factors would be short-term and think the market should return to balance from March.

Geographically:

China: Imports of seaborne coal rose to 24Mt in Jul-26, ~3Mt higher than the 1H average. The Shanxi accident in May triggered a round of safety inspections across the coal industry, with raw coal production falling to its lowest level in 58 months in Jul-26, with imports (of low-CV Indonesian and AU coal) rising and domestic coal prices recovering; we see potential for the market to remain disrupted for the next 3-6 months (LINK).

India: Imports have been subdued due to monsoon-weakened power demand and pro-domestic coal policy; however, low plant stocks and post-monsoon industrial restocking should support renewed demand for SA and US coal from Sept.

Indonesia: Thermal coal exports are estimated at 38Mt in Jul-26, down from ~40Mt in June due to supply constraints (tightening production quotas under the RKAB framework and stricter enforcement of 25% DMO, LINK) and logistical bottlenecks (low water levels along the Barito River in Central Kalimantan disrupting barging). We note the bottlenecks should ease with the onset of the rainy season in Sept.

JKT: In Japan, thermal generation has stepped up due to the heatwave and a nuclear outage (Tonati #3 due to restart in Aug-26), while Taiwan has maintained adequate LNG supply (despite the restart of two retired 600MW units); in South Korea the five state-owned utilities are being merged into one entity, with coal purchasing set to shift towards more long-term contracts (from spot).

Europe: Higher gas prices (Fig72) support coal power demand but low water levels on the Rhine have limited coal shipments and resulted in higher ARA inventories.

Russia: Coal railings have lifted 12% y/y in Jul YTD (eastbound +20%) while overall production is slightly lower y/y, with diesel availability/cost challenges; prices have strengthened due to disruption of supply of flows through the Black Sea.

More color: 

Iron ore prices rose ~$1/t this week to ~$100/t, in line with higher freight rates (AU-CH now ~$19/t and BR-CH ~$41/t vs $9/t and ~$23/t in Jan/Feb; Fig34) and destocking at ports; on a FOB basis, iron ore prices are close to ~18-month lows (Fig31). Fundamentals remain challenging, with shipments strong so far in 2026, while demand is soft.

On the key signals: 1) Iron ore port inventories in China are down w/w to ~150Mt (Fig26), although we note >60% of these support blending and mill inventories, and are not available for spot purchases; iron ore inventories at steel mills (Fig30) have increased w/w and above usual seasonality trends; 2) Iron ore shipments from traditional markets (Fig2) are up +2% so far in 2026; ramp-up of the Simandou project in Guinea represents a meaningful near-term risk to iron ore supply – Simandou shipments stepped up in August to a run-rate of ~35Mtpa after a softer July (Fig8); 3) BF utilisation rates are broadly stable YTD based on MySteel data (Fig16), while steel production in China is down ~3% in January-July based on NBS (Fig20) and CISA data (Fig12); 4) Steel exports from China in January-July are down ~4% YTD (Fig21); 5) Net short positioning on the Dalian has rebuilt moderately since collapsing at the end of July (Fig40). 

Investing theme: 

We have Neutral ratings on Vale, BHP, RIO and FMG, and a Sell on KIO; we estimate spot 2027 FCF yields of 4% for BHP, 7% for RIO and 9% for Vale (interactive model).

Separately, the International Energy Agency said this week that it now expects coal demand to rise 1.2% to 8.94 billion tons in 2026. At the end of last year, it had projected a modest drop this year followed by further declines through 2030.

The IEA identified gas-to-coal switching in China, South Korea, Japan and Europe, showing how a Gulf supply shock is reshaping electricity generation far beyond the region, especially in Europe where natural gas prices have topped 80 euros per megawatt-hour.

Who's Got The Coal?

Given that the energy shock has been most acute in diesel, we suspect the current squeeze ahead of winter shows how quickly coal can regain ground when competing industrial fuels become scarce or expensive.