Trump optimistic as U.S. awaits Iran's response to peace framework

President Trump said Wednesday that the U.S. and Iran have had "good talks over the last 24 hours," and expressed confidence that a deal is possible in the coming days.

Why it matters: The White House is waiting for Iran's response to a one-page memorandum of understanding (MOU) to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations, as Axios first reported.

• U.S. officials said they expect a response from Tehran in the next 24-48 hours. "We are not far, but there is no deal yet," one U.S. official said.

Yes, but: Other U.S. officials are more skeptical a deal will come together.

State of play: The White House wants a diplomatic breakthrough by the time Trump wraps his China trip next Friday, officials say. If no deal is in hand by then, the president could again consider ordering military action.

• "If they don't agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before," Trump wrote on Truth Social on Wednesday.

Driving the news: The one-page, 14-point MOU is being negotiated between Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and several Iranian officials, both directly and through mediators.

• Among other provisions, the deal would involve Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, the U.S. agreeing to lift its sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds, and both sides lifting restrictions around transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

An Iranian foreign ministry spokesman said Wednesday that Iran is still reviewing the proposal and hasn't yet provided its response to the Pakistani mediators.

• U.S. officials said the back-and-forth with Iran is slow because every message has to travel to and from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who remains in hiding for security reasons.

What he is saying: Trump struck an optimistic tone Wednesday on the chances of a deal, even as his own public timeline for negotiations appeared to waver.

• "We're dealing with people that want to make a deal very much," Trump said at a White House event. "We'll see whether or not they are agreeing, and if they don't agree, they'll end up agreeing shortly thereafter."
• Trump told Fox News' Bret Baier on Wednesday he thinks a deal could be reached in a week's time. Later, speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, he said he didn't have a deadline.
• U.S. officials have voiced similar optimism at earlier points in the war and previous rounds of talks — but have yet to land an agreement.

Between the lines: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his team held several calls with Trump and his advisers on Wednesday to discuss the U.S.-Iran negotiations.

• "There is full coordination between us, there are no surprises. We share common goals, and the most important goal is the removal of the enriched material from Iran — all the enriched material — and the dismantling of Iran's enrichment capabilities," Netanyahu said in a statement.
• Netanyahu said Trump believes he can achieve that "one way or another," and added that he had ordered the IDF to be ready if no deal is reached and the war resumes.

What to watch: The IDF conducted an air strike in Beirut on Wednesday targeting two senior Hezbollah commanders — the first Israeli strike on the Lebanese capital in several weeks.

• Trump told Axios last week he had asked Netanyahu to conduct only "surgical" strikes in Lebanon.
• A senior Israeli official said Wednesday's strike "was carried out in a surgical manner," and claimed the target was a Hezbollah headquarters used to direct attacks on Israel that violate the ceasefire.
• Iran has demanded in talks with the U.S. that Israel halt strikes in Lebanon. Whether Wednesday's strike will affect the negotiations is not yet clear.