The Trump administration's claim of "zero" border crossings is falling apart

The Trump administration's flat-out claim that no one is illegally crossing the southern border is starting to fall apart.

Why it matters: The rush of migrants seeking asylum has stopped. But smugglers and cartels are working as hard as ever.

• "We're still seeing the groups cross in the very difficult terrain to work, head-to-toe camouflage, large backpacks, things like that," says Captain Timothy Williams, of the Sheriff's Office of Cochise County, Arizona.
• He designed and runs the Southeastern Arizona Border Region Enforcement (SABRE) program that uses cameras to track illegal border crossings from California to New Mexico.

Zoom in: Three data points suggest the southern border is far leakier than Trump officials will admit.

1. SABRE tracks 200 to 300 crossers per month across the border, with about a 33% apprehension rate.
2. Roughly 200 Border Patrol agents were recently reassigned to the Laredo sector in Texas to address an increase in gotaways (people detected crossing the border but not apprehended), the Daily Wire first reported.
3. Compared to March of 2025, there were an increased number of arrests in the Laredo, Del Rio, Rio Grande Valley, Tuscon and El Centro sectors — just more than half of the Southern border's mileage.

The big picture: "[C]artels find smuggling people and smuggling drugs extremely lucrative, and they're always going to test different ways to be able to try to sneak drugs and people," said Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), head of the Senate border security subcommittee.

• "So that's not going to stop, which is why we got to have good, consistent enforcement," he said."
• Lankford told Axios that DHS hasn't briefed his subcommittee recently on gotaways stats but he expects more updates soon.

Between the lines: Roughly 8,000 people were encountered trying to illegally cross the Southern border in March, according to CBP data. That's a 15% increase compared to last March.

• Known gotaway stats aren't shared by sector or on a regular cadence. In fiscal year 2025, there were about 70,000 reported gotaways, according to an annual budget report.
• "[W]hat the border is is manageable. That's what I call it," said Sheriff Mark Dannels, of Cochise County in the Tucson sector.
• Dannels's county oversees the SABRE program and shares the data with other sheriffs and Border Patrol.

The intrigue: The Trump administration has left itself without compromise on its declarations that the border is sealed.

• "Today the number of illegals crossing into our country is zero," Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said in December at the Reagan National Defense Forum, making a "0" with his hand.
• In February, White House communications Director Steven Cheung claimed on X that there were "Zero border crossing for 9 months straight."
• In late April, current Border Patrol Chief Michael Banks said on X, "You will be detected, arrested, prosecuted, and deported. The Border is Closed!"

The other side: "Today, our border is the most secure that it's been in my lifetime ... This doesn't mean there is no more work to accomplish– that is why this Administration secured significant funding from Congress to further fortify border security," White House Border Czar Tom Homan tells Axios in a statement.

• Border crossings dramatically decreased after Trump was sworn into office, surprising Homan and other officials with the speed of the change.
• But migration is cyclical and it's unclear how the Trump administration will respond to maintain its own measures for a "closed" border.

The bottom line: "While I agree we have the most secure border in our lifetime, significant vulnerabilities still remain and a lot more needs to be done before we can claim it's "secure," former CBP acting commissioner Mark Morgan tells Axios.

• "Unfortunately, many Republicans are waving the mission accomplished flag as they portray the border as being completely secure because they see it as a political win. It's misleading and provides the country with a false sense of security."